ATL: EX INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

For area SE of Windwards.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110211801
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011102118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972011
AL, 97, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 85N, 544W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 86N, 548W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 87N, 552W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 88N, 557W, 25, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2011102118, , BEST, 0, 90N, 562W, 30, 1006, DB

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112101&p=2201841#p2201841

[AdamFirst]

Does this have a realistic shot of developing? I really want there to be a S storm this year since it shares my name.

[AdamFirst]

Post model plots for this prospective Caribbean system here.

[cycloneye]

It reminds me of last year's Tomas in terms of the location.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This must be what GFS sees replace 96L in the SW Carribean in a week or so?

[islandguy246]

Seems that ULL will cause it to move to the NW..

[cycloneye]

This was the 2 PM TWO for this area.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS
INCREASED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Hylian Auree]

Very interesting formation. It's rare to have a tropical low develop nearly inland along the coast of South America. I'm curious to see what track this takes.

[cycloneye]

Hi Caribbean friends,islandguy246 and Hylian Auree. I moved both posts that you made at the models thread to this discussion thread as both were not related to model runs.

Keep us informed about the weather related to this system that may impact your islands.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211804
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1803 UTC FRI OCT 21 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20111021 1800 UTC

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111021  1800   111022  0600   111022  1800   111023  0600

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.0N  56.2W   10.6N  56.7W   12.3N  57.8W   13.4N  59.3W
BAMD     9.0N  56.2W   11.6N  56.2W   14.2N  56.8W   16.4N  57.7W
BAMM     9.0N  56.2W   11.0N  56.3W   13.1N  57.0W   14.6N  58.1W
LBAR     9.0N  56.2W   10.7N  56.3W   12.9N  56.5W   15.1N  57.4W
SHIP        30KTS          35KTS          40KTS          44KTS
DSHP        30KTS          35KTS          40KTS          44KTS

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111023  1800   111024  1800   111025  1800   111026  1800

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  61.2W   14.1N  66.1W   13.9N  71.0W   15.1N  75.2W
BAMD    18.1N  58.9W   19.7N  61.7W   19.9N  65.1W   20.0N  67.6W
BAMM    15.4N  59.7W   15.8N  64.6W   16.1N  70.2W   17.9N  75.1W
LBAR    17.1N  58.5W   19.3N  60.6W   18.9N  62.1W   18.0N  62.9W
SHIP        49KTS          53KTS          61KTS          68KTS
DSHP        49KTS          53KTS          61KTS          68KTS

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.0N LONCUR =  56.2W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =   8.7N LONM12 =  55.2W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =   8.5N LONM24 =  54.4W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Blown Away]

If 97L develops it will be a E Caribbean problem w/o passing 70W IMO!

[FireBird]

very interesting indeed! Reminds me of Tomas too Luis.
We had all prepared last year for it, and it took a huge jog NW.
I see that more models are showing this jog. Yet I can't ignore those that show a direct path for Trinidad. Guess it's gonna be a long night watching and waiting.......

[cycloneye]

Plenty of rain will be the biggest threat for the SE Caribbean islands from this as of right now.

[Gustywind]

Loop of the tropical activity associated to 97L...

[Gustywind]

97L

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 93N, 569W, 25, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[FireBird]

Looks like I can rest comfortably tonight.
Never fails to amaze me how things get blown apart down here.
There might be a chance of reorganization at some point, but nothing to lose sleep over.

[cycloneye]

Looks like I can rest comfortably tonight.
Never fails to amaze me how things get blown apart down here.
There might be a chance of reorganization at some point, but nothing to lose sleep over.

Yes,shear is too strong right now as long that big upper low is around. But let's still watch it as that trough is forecast to lift out by early next week.