AUS: INVEST 97P (former TC GRANT)

[Chacor]

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:55 pm CST on Wednesday 21 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal
areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
175 kilometres north of Croker Island and
350 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and
moving west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour away from the coast.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop late on Friday or during Saturday
north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24
hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time
to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and
commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 9.6 degrees South 132.3 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 120 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm CST Wednesday 21 December.





IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0739 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 9.6S
Longitude: 132.3E
Location Accuracy: within 65 nm [120 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [300 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: Not Assessed
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 21/1800: 9.3S 131.5E: 095 [175]: 025 [045]: 1001
+24: 22/0600: 8.8S 131.9E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 1000
+36: 22/1800: 9.2S 132.4E: 160 [290]: 030 [055]: 1000
+48: 23/0600: 9.8S 132.7E: 190 [350]: 035 [065]: 997
+60: 23/1800: 10.3S 132.6E: 240 [440]: 045 [085]: 991
+72: 24/0600: 10.5S 131.9E: 285 [530]: 055 [100]: 985
REMARKS:
Surface position estimated on strongest region of vorticity associated with
monsoonal westerlies - position estimate is therefore poor.

Upper level trough passage to south in 24 to 48 hours, together with low level
easterly burst is expected to produce strongly favourable upper conditions
suited for rapid development of a small system.

Widely varying model guidance, with little intra run or intra model consistency,
suggests a conservative foreacst policy is warranted. Longer term motion could
be ESE driven by capture of the mid to upper level trough, or by subsequent post
trough ridging, forcing a WSW track.

No Dvorak assessment undertaken.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia

[hurricane25]

Looks like it's under at least 15-20 knots of easterly shear. 92P looks "slightly" better! For one it has more convection closer to its core- unlike this one that looks like swiss cheese...I'd say Maybe slow strengthening, but then we will have to see how the environment evolves within the next 24, 36, 48 and 72 hours.

[Chacor]

AXAU01 ADRM 211930
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1929 UTC 21/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 9.8S
Longitude: 132.4E
Location Accuracy: within 65 nm [120 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/S/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 22/0600: 9.8S 132.3E: 095 [175]: 025 [045]: 1000
+24: 22/1800: 9.9S 132.2E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 997
+36: 23/0600: 10.3S 132.2E: 160 [290]: 030 [055]: 998
+48: 23/1800: 10.8S 132.4E: 190 [350]: 035 [065]: 995
+60: 24/0600: 10.9S 132.1E: 240 [440]: 045 [085]: 989
+72: 24/1800: 11.0S 131.6E: 285 [530]: 050 [095]: 986
REMARKS:
The monsoon trough has been active tonight with deep convection aligned with the
trough across the Arafura Sea. While a broad mid level circulation can be
observed in IR imagery, locating the low level system centre is proving
difficult. Persistence and the location of new storm activity is used as key
determinant for current position.

Upper level trough passage to south in 24 to 48 hours, together with low level
easterly burst is expected to produce mostly favourable conditions for
development.

Movement of the system has been slow with westerly flow coming across the
Equator and easterly flow from the continent finely balanced. Model guidance
remains highly variable, with little intra run or intra model consistency, which
suggests a conservative forecast policy is warranted. While some models are
capturing the system in the mid to upper level trough and bringing it east
briefly, others keep the system slow moving until the ridge over the continent
pushes in and send the system west.

The WSW track in the 48 to 96 hour time frame is favoured at present, though
warning policy continues to allow for the alternate possibility.

Dvorak classification remains at 1.5 due to constraints.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Grifforzer]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 4:46 am CST on Thursday 22 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 150 kilometres north of Croker Island and 335 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and moving south at 2 kilometres per hour.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop early Saturday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. Thisadvice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 9.8 degrees South 132.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 120 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south at 2 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Thursday 22 December.

[Grifforzer]

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:53 am CST on Friday 23 December 2011

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 145 kilometres northeast of Snake Bay and 220 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and moving east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour.

A tropical cyclone is expected to develop early Sunday north of the Top End. GALES are not expected in coastal areas in the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.6 degrees South 131.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 185 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east southeast at 6 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 999 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm CST Friday 23 December.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Must be a lot of uncertainty with this one given the weak steering environment - forecasts are all over the place. Certainly could bring a lot of rain to Darwin and other parts of the Top End!

[wxman57]

It's now Tropical Low 1 (Tropical Depression). Forecast to become a Cat 2 TC (50-63kt winds) before landfall on Christmas Day.

Remarks:

The low is expected to develop but remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 24 to 48 hours.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Don and Milingimbi late Saturday or early Sunday.

GALES may develop later in coastal areas between Dundee Beach and Cape Don, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and between Milingimbi and Nhulunbuy.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Don to Milingimbi that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use. For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Name: Tropical Low

Details:
Time (CST) Intensity Category Latitude
(decimal deg.) Longitude
(decimal deg.) Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr 10 pm December 23 tropical low 10.6S 132.0E 150
+6hr 4 am December 24 tropical low 10.7S 132.1E 215
+12hr 10 am December 24 tropical low 10.8S 132.6E 240
+18hr 4 pm December 24 1 10.9S 132.9E 270
+24hr 10 pm December 24 1 11.0S 133.4E 295
+36hr 10 am December 25 2 11.2S 133.4E 355
+48hr 10 pm December 25 1 11.7S 133.2E 415

The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 2:00 am CST Saturday

[Chacor]

Just FYI, the "1" is not an official number, merely a symbol in use on the BoM's page. When both this and ex-Fina were Tropical Lows, this was Tropical Low 2. Its official number/identifier is 04U.

AXAU01 ADRM 231331
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1330 UTC 23/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 132.0E
Location Accuracy: within 80 nm [150 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/0000: 10.8S 132.6E: 130 [240]: 030 [055]: 995
+24: 24/1200: 11.0S 133.4E: 160 [295]: 035 [065]: 992
+36: 25/0000: 11.2S 133.4E: 190 [355]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 25/1200: 11.7S 133.2E: 225 [415]: 040 [075]: 990
+60: 26/0000: 12.5S 133.4E: 270 [505]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 26/1200: 13.6S 134.2E: 320 [590]: 030 [055]: 996
REMARKS:
The low has good broad scale structure but is still elongated along the trough
axis. 24 hour visible imagery comparison during the day today showed greater
curvature of the low cloud lines and increased convection around the centre
against the diurnal trend. Fresh convection has begun to occur north of Cobourg
Peninsula near the low level centre.

Dvorak analysis remains difficult. Convection is improving around the broad mid
level circulation but has not yet focused to the low level circulation, making
banding hard to determine. Assuming the current convective band to the west and
southwest is moving around the circulation, a 0.3 to 0.4 wrap can be made giving
a DT of 2.0. Due to low confidence in DT, FT is based on MET=PT=2.0

Pressures continue to drop by around 1.5 to 2hPa per day. The AScat pass from
this morning shows a band of 25kt northwesterlies in the convergent monsoon flow
to the north of the low.

The majority of guidance is maintaining slow movement offshore for the next 24
to 36 hours due to a fine balance between the monsoon flow and the mid-level
ridge to the south. In the longer term the consensus is for an south to
southeast movement as the ridge decays.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Chacor]

AXAU01 ADRM 231928
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1928 UTC 23/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 10.7S
Longitude: 131.5E
Location Accuracy: within 80 nm [150 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 24/0600: 10.4S 131.2E: 110 [205]: 035 [065]: 993
+24: 24/1800: 10.4S 131.7E: 140 [260]: 040 [075]: 990
+36: 25/0600: 10.7S 131.8E: 170 [320]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 25/1800: 11.2S 131.6E: 205 [380]: 055 [100]: 981
+60: 26/0600: 12.1S 131.8E: 250 [470]: 060 [110]: 978
+72: 26/1800: 13.1S 132.3E: 300 [555]: 040 [075]: 991
REMARKS:
Darwin radar indicates a mid level centre north of the Tiwi Islands, whilst
surface data indicates a weak surface low in the vicinity of Cape Don. The
advised location is an intermediate solution - assuming that the mid level
rotation descends to the surface.

The system has consolidated convection near the mid level centre level centre,
and there are signs that an upper high is forming. A 30 knot easterly surge
propogated to the south overnight, and appears to have provided impetus. The
monsoon flow to the NW is also beginning to wrap into the circulation.

Model guidance continues to be varied. GFS initial positions are all too far to
the east and the subsequent rapid translation to the SE is a consequence of
this. Latest UKMET and ACCESS-T have quite reasonable solutions, in that the
analyses and 6 hour recent positions are in agreement with observations.

A case can be made for DT of 2.0 - however surface observations continue to
suggest the circulation- at least on the southern side, is quite weak at 10 to
15 knots. Although the presentation looks quite impressive at present it is
likely that the diurnal progression will see the system reach TC intensity in 12
to 36 hours if it remains over water.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Chacor]

Darwin warning:

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 7:43 am CST on Saturday 24 December 2011

A Cyclone WARNING continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas
from Cape Fourcroy to Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and
Croker Island.

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas west to Dundee Beach, including
Darwin, and east to Nhulunbuy.

At 6:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
140 kilometres west northwest of Croker Island and
200 kilometres north northeast of Darwin
and is moving west at 7 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or early on
Sunday. It should remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 24 to 48
hours.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and Croker
Island, later today or early on Sunday.

GALES may develop later over other coastal areas between Dundee Beach and
Nhulunbuy, including Darwin.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Fourcroy to Milingimbi,
including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and Croker Island, that now is the time to
make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency
shelter to use. For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together
your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter
preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have
accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present
accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This
advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary
precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:30 am CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.7 degrees South 131.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 150 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 7 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Saturday 24 December.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone


JTWC outlook:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
130.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 132.0E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING INTO
AND TIGHTENING AROUND THE LLCC. A 131137Z SSMIS IMAGE PROVIDED A
GOOD DEPICTION OF THE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING
THE LLCC, AS WELL AS ALLOWING FOR A GOOD FIX ON THE SYSTEM. THE
LLCC IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE TOP END AND EXISTS
IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE 231200Z PGTW STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS A SINGULAR POINT AND HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES ARE 30 TO 32 DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Chacor]

Latest IR

[Grifforzer]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 4:53 pm CST on Saturday 24 December 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin.

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and inland to Jabiru .

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 135 kilometres west northwest of Croker Island and 190 kilometres north northeast of Darwin and is moving southwest at 1 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Sunday. It should remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 18 to 24 hours before moving south. It is likely to move into the Van Diemen Gulf early Monday with a possible landfall east of Darwin later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and Croker Island, early on Sunday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop if the cyclone continues to intensify, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay and Croker Island, late on Sunday.

Darwin may experience GALES on Sunday night on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru on Monday.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone takes a more easterly path.

HEAVY RAIN is is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur districts. The Territory Controller advises residents from Snake Bay to Croker Island, including Cape Don, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use. For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advices residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVICED TO DO SO.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 pm CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.8 degrees South 131.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 1 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 997 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message, particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm CST Saturday 24 December

[Chacor]

AXAU01 ADRM 241322
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 24/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 10.8S
Longitude: 131.9E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:

Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0000: 11.0S 132.1E: 070 [130]: 040 [075]: 989
+24: 25/1200: 11.3S 132.0E: 100 [185]: 045 [085]: 986
+36: 26/0000: 11.9S 131.9E: 130 [245]: 055 [100]: 980
+48: 26/1200: 12.9S 132.1E: 165 [305]: 045 [085]: 987
+60: 27/0000: 13.4S 132.8E: 210 [395]: 025 [045]: 998
+72: 27/1200: 13.8S 133.9E: 260 [480]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
System currently located north of Cobourg Peninsula based on consensus between
surface observations, infrared imagery and Berrimah radar. Very slow eastward
movement is evident on radar and satellite imagery. Fix quality is improving.

Dvorak analysis yields DT 2.5 based on a 0.4 spiral wrap. FT based on PT= MET =
2.5. Recent ASCAT pass indicated 25/30 knots winds in west near Tiwi Islands.

Model guidance shows slow movement in the short term due to system being
balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the mid-level ridge to
the south. Models start weakening the ridge later on Sunday, leading to movement
of the system south to land and then east towards the Gulf of Carpentaria, as
the monsoon westerlies become the dominant steering influence. OOZ runs of UKMO,
NOGAPS, GFDN favour a southwesterly track, but with little meteorological
support, this seems unlikely to eventuate. GFS on the other hand, has an
excessively rapid eastward movement in the short term. Track forecast is based
on shifted consensus of NWP models other than GFS, NOGAPS, GFDN.

Environment remains favourable for development with low vertical shear,
plentiful vorticity in the monsoon trough, good upper outflow and warm sea
surface temperatures. Expectation is that TC intensity will be reached in 3 to
6 hours.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1930 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Chacor]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 10:59 pm CST on Saturday 24 December 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas
from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin .

A Cyclone WATCH is now current for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy
and inland to Jabiru .

At 9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be
85 kilometres west northwest of Croker Island and
210 kilometres north northeast of Darwin
and is moving east at 5 kilometres per hour.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone tonight. It should
remain slow moving north of the coast over the next 12 to 24 hours before
moving south. It is likely to move into the Van Diemen Gulf early Monday with a
possible landfall east of Darwin later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and Croker
Island, tonight.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop if the
cyclone continues to intensify, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay
and Croker Island on Sunday night.

Darwin may experience GALES on Sunday night and Monday on the edge of the
tropical cyclone as it passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to
Jabiru on Monday.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone
takes a more easterly path.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island. Large
waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises
over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts.
The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Goulburn Island to
Snake Bay, including Cape Don to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make
final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency
shelter to use.

For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency
kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advices residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if
you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of
your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to
use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED
TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

REPEATING: Residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape
Don, are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 pm CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.8 degrees South 131.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am CST Sunday 25 December.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

JTWC have issued a TCFA:

WTXS21 PGTW 240230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 100 NM RADIUS OF 11.0S 131.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY, SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR DATA
AT 232330Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
11.0S 131.4E. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S
130.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0S 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED POCKETS OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS REVEAL ABUNDANT
DEEP MOISTURE FLOWING INTO AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MEANDERING JUST OFF-SHORE OF THE TOP END UNDER A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPING VERY SLOWLY. THE SCATTERED
POCKETS OF CONVECTION APPEAR TO BE SLOWING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, 24
HOUR PRESSURE FALLS FROM SURFACE STATIONS ALONG THE TOP END AND AN
OVERALL INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS DO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS DEEPENING. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS A SINGULAR POINT AND HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE 30 TO 32 DEGREES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250230Z.//

[Chacor]

Named now.

AXAU01 ADRM 241922
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1922 UTC 24/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Grant
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 10.6S
Longitude: 132.4E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [060 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 991 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0600: 10.6S 132.2E: 070 [130]: 040 [075]: 989
+24: 25/1800: 11.1S 132.0E: 100 [185]: 050 [095]: 983
+36: 26/0600: 11.9S 132.0E: 130 [245]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 26/1800: 12.6S 132.2E: 165 [305]: 040 [075]: 990
+60: 27/0600: 13.0S 132.6E: 210 [395]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 27/1800: 13.1S 133.4E: 260 [480]: 030 [055]: 995
REMARKS:
From an intensity perspective four consecutive IR images have suggested 0.6 to
0.7 of spiral wrap implying a DT of 3.0. Macluer Island, about 45 nm SE from the
centre, is reporting 35 knots [one minute mean] gusting 40 knots in recent
observations. Stronger winds are expected on northern side of the system due to
interaction with the monsoon flow. As such the system has been upgraded to
category one status.

Centre is fixed by Darwin radar - though at the limit of effective range - and
surface observations. System is relatively small in size at 40 nm, though gale
radius has been expanded on the northern side to 60 nm.

Model guidance continues to reflect the slow movement in the short term due to
system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the
mid-level ridge to the south. GFS continues to be discounted due to poor initial
analyses. Other than that a consistent model trend is for slow short term motion
in the 6 to 18 hour time frame, followed by a track to the south and then
eventually east southeast over the Top End as the mid level ridge to the south
weakens.

CIMMS upper level analyses suggests a weak TUTT feature on the western flank
has been a limiting feature to development. Due to proximity to land, and to
upper flow limitations, maximum forecast intensity has been capped at 55 knots
10 minute mean.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of
models.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Chacor]

Rare 2100 UTC tech bulletin...

AXAU01 ADRM 242304
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 2303 UTC 24/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Grant
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 2100 UTC
Latitude: 10.7S
Longitude: 132.4E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: east [090 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/0900: 10.9S 132.3E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 25/2100: 11.2S 132.2E: 100 [185]: 050 [095]: 983
+36: 26/0900: 12.0S 132.2E: 130 [245]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 26/2100: 12.5S 132.4E: 165 [305]: 040 [075]: 989
+60: 27/0900: 12.9S 132.8E: 210 [395]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 27/2100: 13.0S 133.8E: 260 [480]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
DvorakIR images have 0.6 wrap. McCluer Island, about 45 nm SE from the centre,
is reporting 30 knots [one minute mean] gusting 40 knots in recent observations.
Stronger winds are expected on northern side of the system due to interaction
with the monsoon flow. As such the system has been upgraded to category one
status.

Centre is fixed by Darwin radar - though at the limit of effective range - and
surface observations. System is relatively small in size at 40 nm, though gale
radius has been expanded on the northern side to 60 nm.

Model guidance continues to reflect the slow movement in the short term due to
system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the
mid-level ridge to the south. GFS continues to be discounted due to poor initial
analyses. Other than that a consistent model trend is for slow short term motion
in the 6 to 12 hour time frame, followed by a track to the south and then
eventually east southeast over the Top End as the mid level ridge to the south
weakens.

CIMMS upper level analyses suggests a weak TUTT feature on the western flank
has been a limiting feature to development. Due to proximity to land, and to
upper flow limitations, maximum forecast intensity has been capped at 55 knots
10 minute mean.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of
models.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0130 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[Chacor]

IDD20150
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 22
Issued at 7:30 am CST on Sunday 25 December 2011

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi
including the Tiwi Islands and Darwin .

A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Milingimbi to Nhulunbuy and
inland to Jabiru .

At 6:30 am CST Tropical Cyclone Grant, Category 1 was estimated to be
55 kilometres north northwest of Croker Island and
255 kilometres northeast of Darwin
and is moving east at 5 kilometres per hour.

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Grant should remain slow moving over the next 6 to
12 hours before moving south, over the Cobourg Peninsula tonight and into the
Van Diemen Gulf during Monday. Present indications have it crossing the coast
again east of Darwin later on Monday.

GALES with gusts to 110 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between
Cape Fourcroy and Milingimbi, including the Tiwi Islands, Cape Don and Croker
Island this morning.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour may develop if the
cyclone continues to intensify, affecting parts of the coast between Snake Bay
and Croker Island tonight.

Darwin may experience GALES on Monday on the edge of the tropical cyclone as it
passes to the east. GALES may also extend inland to Jabiru on Monday.

GALES may extend further east to Nhulunbuy on Monday if the tropical cyclone
takes a more easterly path.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Don and Goulburn Island. Large
waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause localised flooding and significant stream rises
over the northern Darwin-Daly, Arnhem and northern Roper-McArthur Districts.
The Territory Controller advises residents from west of Goulburn Island to
Snake Bay, including Cape Don to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Residents of remaining areas from Dundee Beach to Milingimbi should now make
final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency
shelter to use.

For communities under Watch, now is the time to put together your emergency
kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Areas that if
you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of
your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to
use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED
TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

REPEATING: Residents from west of Goulburn Island to Snake Bay, including Cape
Don, are advised to TAKE SHELTER NOW.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Grant at 6:30 am CST:

.Centre located near...... 10.7 degrees South 132.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the east at 5 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Sunday 25 December.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

AXAU01 ADRM 250124
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
Issued by DARWIN TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0123 UTC 25/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Grant
Identifier: 04U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.7S
Longitude: 132.4E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 1 knots [2 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1001 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 25/1200: 10.9S 132.3E: 070 [130]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 26/0000: 11.3S 132.2E: 100 [185]: 050 [095]: 985
+36: 26/1200: 12.1S 132.2E: 135 [245]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 27/0000: 12.6S 132.5E: 165 [305]: 035 [065]: 992
+60: 27/1200: 12.9S 133.1E: 215 [395]: 030 [055]: 994
+72: 28/0000: 13.0S 134.1E: 260 [480]: 030 [055]: 993
REMARKS:
DvorakIR images have 0.5 wrap. McCluer Island, about 45 nm SE from the centre,
is reporting 37 knots [one minute mean] gusting 45 knots in recent observations.
Stronger winds are expected on northern side of the system due to interaction
with the monsoon flow. As such the system will remain a category one status.

Centre is fixed by Darwin radar - though at the limit of effective range - and
surface observations. System is relatively small in size at 40 nm, though gale
radius has been expanded on the northern side to 60 nm.

Model guidance continues to reflect the slow movement in the short term due to
system being balanced between the monsoon westerlies to the north and the
mid-level ridge to the south. GFS continues to be discounted due to poor initial
analyses. Other than that a consistent model trend is for slow short term motion
in the 6 to 12 hour time frame, followed by a track to the south and then
eventually east southeast over the Top End as the mid level ridge to the south
weakens.

CIMMS upper level analyses suggests a weak TUTT feature on the western flank
has been a limiting feature to development. Due to proximity to land, and to
upper flow limitations, maximum forecast intensity has been capped at 55 knots
10 minute mean.

Longer term redevelopment in the Gulf of Carpentaria is a feature of a number of
models.



Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/0730 UTC by Darwin TCWC.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Merry Christmas everyone! Still watching this storm though, here is the latest video I made on it, let me know if you have any thoughts.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_PHlGleg7M[/youtube]