The Doomsday Scenario

[Tip]

First and likely to happen will be a stalled cold front from the Mississippi to the Mid-Atlantic causing widespread but scattered rains through Monday along and south of the front.

Second, the moisture from whatever forms in the Gulf links to the decaying trough and brings serious rains to the same region in the 2-6 inch category.

Finally, Fabian runs the east coast and causes catastrophic flooding in the saturated areas.

THIS HAS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF ACTUALLY HAPPENING, JUST FOR ENTERTAINMENT VALUE.

[Stormchaser16]

Actually your not far from the truth.

[Stormchaser16]

And here is the reason....
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_276l.gif

FORGET About the storm turning away from the coast, the GFS has the storm being too weak as it still isnt initializing correctly so that could make a difference in it turning away. BUT the trough is still there, the ridge in the midwest is STILL there. The thing is that it has the trough a bit more progressive so it doesnt pass by Fabian as it did in the 12z run. This means it would turn away. IF it slows down by Florida, which is possible then the trough will bypass it and it will be forced up the coast.

[Colin]

But the Northeast will get spared like you told me via IM?

[Tip]

Just thought I'd bump this post for discussion. It looks like part one and part two will come true. Thank God it looks now that part three WON't occur. However many areas may get flooding rains anyway.

HPC QPF DISCUSSION
THINKING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER DISCUSSION. THE ETA
AND GFS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW FAR N TO BRING THE MDT TO HVY
RAINFALL. WE HAVE OPTED TOWARDS A COMPROMISE. THE ETA DID NOT
DO TOO WELL AT SPREADING THE PCPN NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER....THE GFS HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO FAR N WITH
ITS MAX DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL EXPECT WAVES ALONG
THE SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL HELP FOCUS THE CONVECTION AND
SHOULD LEAD TO TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOKS LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT HVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF 5 INCHES OR MORE. ADDED PCPN ACROSS ERN TX
WHERE RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A FEEDER BAND HAS SET UP.

ALSO ADDED PCPN OVER AZ WHERE THE UPPER LOW TO ITS S SHOULD
PROVIDE DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND FORCING. ELSEWHERE
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

...................................
THE EARLIER PRELIM DAY 1 DISCUSSION FOLLOWS......

...T.D. GRACE HAS HELPED PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD THAT WILL BE
INTERACTING THE VERY SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS ENEWD ACROSS THE MS AND OH VALLEYS. EXPECT A
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FM ERN OK AND WRN AR ACROSS MO AND
ALONG THE NRN OH VALLEY REGION INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES.
SEE LATEST QPF ERD FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...PRELIM DAY 1...

CONCERNING GRACE AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FM
TX NEWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION......

EXPECT THE REMAINS OF GRACE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NWD AND TO COMBINE
WITH THE FRONT NOW ACROSS OK THIS PD. PWS THAT ARE BEING
PULLED NEWD INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A
LARGE AREA OF 2.50 INCH OR GREATER VALUES ANALYZED THIS EVENING.
SUCH HIGH PWS GUARANTEE THAT PWS WILL BE AOA 2.00 ALONG THE
ENTIRE FRONTAL ERN OK ACROSS THE CENTRAL MS VALLEY AND OH
VALLEYS INTO THE NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE MODELS ALL AGREE
ON THE SYSTEMS PCPN POTENTIAL WITH EACH FCSTING A LARGE AREA OF
2.00 INCH OR GREATER AMNTS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE HVIEST WILL OCCUR SINCE THEY DIFFER ON THE
NUMBER AND TIMING OF SFC WAVES THAT WILL BE RIPPLING ALONG THE
FRONT. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT PULLING THE AXIS OF HVY
RAINFALL NWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. IT
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH CANADIAN MODELS WHILE THE NGM MORE OF
LESS SUPPORTS THE ETA SOLUTION WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
BECAUSE OF OUR UNCERTAINTY WE HAVE OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION . THE ONE THING WE ARE CERTAIN ABOUT IS THAT THE
ORIENTATION OF THE BOUNDARY FAVORS TRAINING OF CELLS ALONG IT
SO THERE SHOULD BE AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HVY RAINFALL WITH
POCKETS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
LIFTING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF ANY
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK SUPPLYING FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND WITH A
25 TO 30 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO SUPPLY LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THINK THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY
OF HAVING OVER A LOCALIZED AREA OF 5 INCH OR GREATER RAINFALL
SOMEWHERE FM NRN AR ACROSS OK EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO
PA.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Well if this is the worse case scenario, which it could be, then you're right tip. Hopefully we won't get too much rain from all of this as the east is very wet and will get only more saturated in the days to come!!

Add fabian to the mix and you're right that could be a huge disaster eclipsing that of hurricane floyd in 1999!!! Before Floyd and Dennis moved through in 1999, we had a severe drought. Right now it's wet and bound to get wetter. Add saturated ground to the mix and god forbid a major hurricane with torrential rainfall, then it's devastating!!

We sure don't need that in the mid atlantic states given our wet summer in '03, I'll say that right now!! But the east coast is also due for a major hurricane!!! We'll keep watching though and keep our fingers crossed for minimal flood impacts!!

Jim