ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

For Western Caribbean area.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230017
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 180N, 860W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 275, 120, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012052206, , BEST, 0, 180N, 854W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012052212, , BEST, 0, 180N, 849W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012052218, , BEST, 0, 182N, 845W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 275, 130, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest



Thread at Talking Tropics that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112769&start=0

[Hurricane Andrew]

Why did they pull the trigger already?

[cycloneye]

A STWO should come out soon.

[wxman57]

Why did they pull the trigger already?

No trigger was pulled. Running some models doesn't imply a good chance of development or that development is imminent. They're simply running a few models just to take a look at the region. I'm sure they have been monitoring the model projections of development for the last 10 days. I don't see much to be too concerned about. First model runs indicate no development, even though they assume the system already has a 25kt LLC (which it doesn't). Some rain for Cuba, maybe Florida and the Bahamas, but probably no significant development.

[ouragans]

A STWO should come out soon.

for less than 30%, do you think they will? unless they give it 30 or more...

[Dean4Storms]

Why did they pull the trigger already?

No trigger was pulled. Running some models doesn't imply a good chance of development or that development is imminent. They're simply running a few models just to take a look at the region. I'm sure they have been monitoring the model projections of development for the last 10 days. I don't see much to be too concerned about. Some rain for Cuba, maybe Florida and the Bahamas, but probably no significant development.

LOL..... Those words could come back to bite!!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Why did they pull the trigger already?

No trigger was pulled. Running some models doesn't imply a good chance of development or that development is imminent. They're simply running a few models just to take a look at the region. I'm sure they have been monitoring the model projections of development for the last 10 days. I don't see much to be too concerned about. First model runs indicate no development, even though they assume the system already has a 25kt LLC (which it doesn't). Some rain for Cuba, maybe Florida and the Bahamas, but probably no significant development.

What do you mean it doesn't? Yes it does.

[northjaxpro]

I thought earlier today that NHC would at least designate this as an invest this evening and they did. Low pressure in the NW Caribbean today has improved as conditions have gradually become less hostile. There is enough model support for the potential for some development in the next five days and the shear has slacked off a bit and pressures continue to slowly fall in the NW Caribbean. That is sufficient enough to designate to 94L.

[CrazyC83]

Another Invest??? Is it really May 22?

[vbhoutex]

Why did they pull the trigger already?

No trigger was pulled. Running some models doesn't imply a good chance of development or that development is imminent. They're simply running a few models just to take a look at the region. I'm sure they have been monitoring the model projections of development for the last 10 days. I don't see much to be too concerned about. First model runs indicate no development, even though they assume the system already has a 25kt LLC (which it doesn't). Some rain for Cuba, maybe Florida and the Bahamas, but probably no significant development.

What do you mean it doesn't? Yes it does.

I honestly have not looked at anything concerning this today, but I doubt that a professional meteorologist would make a statement such as that unless he has information to back it up. Do you have information to back it up? If you do please post it.

[AnnularCane]

Invest #5 for the year, and one named storm, and it's not even June 1 yet. How often does that happen?

[cycloneye]

Invest #5 for the year, and one named storm, and it's not even June 1 yet. How often does that happen?

Is winning against the EPAC that is at 92E now Bud. I dont remember being this far (94L) on this date.

[NDG]

I have been saying for a while now that because there are chances of a weak El Nino during the heart of the hurricane season that it did not mean that we would not have an active (better than average) beginning to the hurricane season.

[JonathanBelles]

Alberto dissipates, 94L forms in the Caribbean. Flooding possible for Florida for the holiday weekend?

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... 94l-forms/

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

@vbhourtex: While it may be elongated and weak, a low-level circulation definitely exists in the northwest Caribbean Sea just south of the Isle of Youth. This is depicted by 850/925 mbar vorticity maps and could be viewed using visible/RGB satellite loops when they were available.

[floridasun78]

if low were invest at it very shear low and weak all storms are east of it

[Gustywind]

Waouw already another Invest ?! What a start for 2012... That's a bit surprising for this month. Let's hope that nothing will form from this thing. Could we see our first cane during June?

[cycloneye]

Waouw already another Invest ?! What a start for 2012... That's a bit surprising for this month. Let's hope that nothing will form from this thing. Could we see our first cane during June?

Hi Gusty. Conditions are not very favorable right now for development to take place. Cane in June? Not likely,but you never know what mother nature has instored.

[Dean4Storms]

Very little convection, shear, disorganized and attached to a trough, not much to look at for now!

[CDO62]

Waouw already another Invest ?! What a start for 2012... That's a bit surprising for this month. Let's hope that nothing will form from this thing. Could we see our first cane during June?

Some of us in Central Florida are hoping it does form into something. We need rain here REALLY bad. I hope the gfs and a few others joining in on the solution are correct in taking the system just East of Florida, then bringing it back West across the peninsula.