Upcoming week - July 23-29

[Andrew92]

Again, I apologize for the delay in posting this, as I got home from my weekend trip much later than I expected, around 11:30 PM my time zone - much later for many others who read this. But, onward and upward we go with this week, finally.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Evaluating last week

This past week I had a feeling we might see some type of tropical development. The GFS and Euro models did indeed suggest such a possible development for Sunday from a frontal system. This middle part of July is also a somewhat conducive time historically for such developments to happen in El Nino years like this one. However, it didn't happen. The frontal system is there, but now nothing is poised to develop off the East Coast anytime soon. Therefore, my grade for this past week will take a hit for this.

However, I did accurately predict no other tropical developments for the week. While there were some interesting looking systems - first near Bermuda to start the week, then off Florida to end it - nothing materialized. I have had a habit of being bullish on systems like these perhaps developing, so at least some kind of a step in the right direction was made there.

But I still foresaw a development that although was early on suggested by models, has not happened or even looks imminent. Therefore, my grade for this past week is a C-.

Of course, I did also do a quick 24-hour prediction up until about this point, predicting no tropical activity in the Atlantic, which has materialized. This being that the tropical wave near or over Florida has fizzled, and the promising looking frontal system has not spurred any tropical cyclones, at least so far.

So what is in the cards this upcoming week? Let’s take a look.

Current situation and models

With the tropical wave that looked like it could have developed near Florida now fizzled out, and the frontal system not looking like it is dropping any kind of tropical cyclone, the Atlantic is quiet for now. Any tropical waves coming off the African coast are losing their battles to a very strong Saharan Air Layer (SAL), infiltrate dry air into their cores. The strongest thunderstorms appear to be in the Bay of Campeche reaching across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the western Caribbean, but this is not organized tropically. In the subtropics are still some areas of moderate thunderstorms, but nothing suggestive of tropical or subtropical development. No reliable model also foresees any such activity this upcoming week.

Recent history

Since 1960, these storms have developed or occurred during this upcoming week (and weren’t on their way out) – with asterisks if any “real” El Nino years are involved:

Abby in 1960
An unnamed storm in 1964
Dorothy in 1966
Ella in 1966
Anna in 1969
Blanche in 1975
Claudette in 1979
Bob in 1985
Arthur in 1990
Bertha in 1990
Cesar in 1996
Danny in 1997*
Alex in 1998
Franklin in 2005
Gert in 2005
Bonnie in 2010
Don in 2011

That’s a pretty decent count of 17 storms this upcoming week, but down from 20 the week prior. Of these 17, only six went on to become hurricanes: Abby, Dorothy, Blanche, Bob, Bertha, and Cesar. Abby and Cesar came from tropical waves, and developed upon reaching the Caribbean. Dorothy, Blanche, Bob, and Bertha formed from more non-tropical origins. Abby was the strongest, peaking at 100 mph. Coming close to hurricane intensity were Anna, Arthur, and Franklin; all three of these came from tropical waves.

But what about Danny in 1997, you ask? Yes, it’s true this storm was a hurricane – prior to this upcoming week though. This storm did also re-intensify into a tropical storm off the coast of North Carolina. But upon re-emerging, Danny got little stronger this go-around, peaking at 60 mph. This also marks as the only tropical storm to occur at all during this last week of July in an El Nino year. The only other developments I have been able to find during this upcoming week during El Nino years were a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico in 1977, as well as one near Bermuda in 1992.

So what does this all tell us?

Quite simply, the odds for development are long. Very, very long. For starters, there is nothing about to develop. No reliable model develops anything during this upcoming week either. Lastly, only one tropical storm, along with two tropical depressions, are the only things to occur during this upcoming week in El Nino years, over the course of 52 years. Barring anything else unknown, the chances of seeing even the weakest tropical cyclone this upcoming week during an El Nino year are very slim. And remember that supposed peak in the middle part of July, evidenced especially in recent years? Nothing came of it in 2012, even when the GFS and Euro models tried to suggest it around this time.

The prediction

Last week was rough with my prediction for some kind of development falling short. This week appears quite a bit easier. I predict no tropical or subtropical activity this upcoming week. Confidence is 95%.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Since nothing is imminent tonight, let's evaluate.

Confidence was very high this past week that no tropical activity would occur. However, that prediction was put to a severe test on Monday and Tuesday with Invest 98L quickly trying to organize into what easily would have been a tropical storm. However, such development either did not happen, or did and was missed and will go down as an unnamed storm. The feature, impressive as it was, is a little too transient for me to think it was a tropical storm, so my grade for this past week is an A.

The tropics look to maybe be heating up late this coming week. New post coming shortly.

-Andrew92