Longest period without a major hurricane

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Bocadude85
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Longest period without a major hurricane

#1 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:28 am

I tried searching this question but could not find the answer. Does anyone know what is the longest period of time the USA has gone without a major hurricane making landfall? I believe Wilma in 2005 was the last major to make a US landfall.
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Longest period without a major hurricane

#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:56 pm

Throughout all of HURDAT, the record appears to be nine years, between a hurricane hitting Louisiana in August 1860 and the 1869 New England hurricane. However, the data back then might not be the most reliable, IMO. In the 20th century, it was just over six years between the 1900 Galveston and a hurricane that hit southwest Florida in October 1906. So, in the period of reliable records, we appear to be in record territory. However, it's certainly plausible that with less data, Ike in 2008 would have been considered a major at landfall due to its low pressure, less than Elena 85 which was a major hurricane.
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#3 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:52 pm

I go by the Civil War-era stretch. It will be a while until we break it, but I am pretty confident (not an official forecast) that we will stretch the current streak to seven years...don't think we will see a major in the US this year.
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#4 Postby somethingfunny » Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:39 am

The longest stretch in many decades was the stretch between Cat3 Bret hit South Texas in August 1999, and Cat4 Charley hitting Southwest Florida in August 2004.

I don't really pay attention to terms like "major hurricane" anymore though because even though no Cat3 or greater has hit the US since Wilma in October 2005... Come on, Ike in September 2008 was no "non-major". There's another thread where we're discussing the problems with Saffir-Simpson though. Even if you include Ike though, we're approaching four years now without a major hurricane hitting the US. Irene and Isaac were bad hurricanes, but not in the same class as Charley/Wilma/Ike/etc.
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Re: Longest period without a major hurricane

#5 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:43 am

Hurricanehink wrote:Throughout all of HURDAT, the record appears to be nine years, between a hurricane hitting Louisiana in August 1860 and the 1869 New England hurricane. However, the data back then might not be the most reliable, IMO. In the 20th century, it was just over six years between the 1900 Galveston and a hurricane that hit southwest Florida in October 1906. So, in the period of reliable records, we appear to be in record territory. However, it's certainly plausible that with less data, Ike in 2008 would have been considered a major at landfall due to its low pressure, less than Elena 85 which was a major hurricane.


The 1869 storm seems overestimated IMO, since the pressure was about 963mb...it seems so unlikely that a storm with such a high pressure can sustain Cat 3 winds into New England.
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