NW Gulf Low this weekend? (Is Invest 93L)

[Stormcenter]

These are some excerpts from the NWS Afternoon Discussion out of New Orleans, LA on 9-13-12


AS WE HEAD INTO SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER NM
WILL HAVE ALREADY OPENED UP AND SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE SRN
PLAINS ENTERING THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
INDUCE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF ALONG WITH INCREASING THE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WET BEGINNING
NEXT WEEK. /CAB/

MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES HAS LED TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NRN GULF AND
THUS MODERATE TO STRONG ERLY WINDS. IN THE TIDAL LAKES AND SOUNDS
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE LIKELY BUT IN THE OUTER WATERS WINDS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 15-20KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. THIS PERSISTENT
ERLY WINDS ARE ALSO LEADING TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES PROMPTING
THE ISSUANCE OF COASTAL ADVS AND BEACH HAZARD STATEMENTS. THE
GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO REALLY WEAKEN TOMORROW NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO RELAX. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS VEERING AROUND THE THE SE. /CAB/

[tailgater]

Yeah I noticed a weak low maybe forming on the tailend of the front that is stalled in the Fla. Keys, weak low seems to be drifting westward and some of the models are hinting at a low starting to get it's act together in the western GOM/BOC in a few days.
Just a little something to keep an eye on over the weekend.

[CrazyC83]

That low appears likely to get driven by the cold trough digging down and move up the east coast as well? That is what Accuweather says at least...

[LaBreeze]

Local met stated tonight that we may have to keep a close watch on the NW Caribbean at the end of the month for possible development. Anyone heard of this scenario?

[Hurricane Alexis]

Local met stated tonight that we may have to keep a close watch on the NW Caribbean at the end of the month for possible development. Anyone heard of this scenario?

It's being discussed in the global model runs thread.

[tailgater]

This is the weak low that I was posting about yesterday, it continues to drift westwardand and conditions seem to a little more favorable in the western gulf.

[tailgater]

Bored!

[jinftl]

So far out, pure speculation. Could be a reference to the focus of storms moving to the nw caribbean as we move into october. If the western gulf can get through September without a storm, history would say the season is about over thanks to the stronger and stronger parade of troughs that would lift storms north or northeast out of the NW Caribbean. I think you have to go back to 1989 to find an October storm in Texas (Jerry)...and that may be one of the only in the books.

Local met stated tonight that we may have to keep a close watch on the NW Caribbean at the end of the month for possible development. Anyone heard of this scenario?

[Hurricane Alexis]

So far out, pure speculation. Could be a reference to the focus of storms moving to the nw caribbean as we move into october. If the western gulf can get through September without a storm, history would say the season is about over thanks to the stronger and stronger parade of troughs that would lift storms north or northeast out of the NW Caribbean. I think you have to go back to 1989 to find an October storm in Texas (Jerry)...and that may be one of the only in the books.

Local met stated tonight that we may have to keep a close watch on the NW Caribbean at the end of the month for possible development. Anyone heard of this scenario?

So that will give the Fl peninsula an increased threat?

[cycloneye]

20%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY.

[Extratropical94]

It's Invest 93L now, a mod may lock this thread as there's a new one:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113740&hilit=