EPAC: PAUL - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Probably gonna become Paul. Another recurver - Baja threat.

[cycloneye]

30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

40%.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 40%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Kingarabian]

Why has it disappeared off of SSD and the Storm2K map...?

[cycloneye]

Why has it disappeared off of SSD and the Storm2K map...?

I think because they have not runned the models as you can see by the blank spaces on last three best track data and also no NEQ.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

As you can see 98L has all the data including the NEQ.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

Why has it disappeared off of SSD and the Storm2K map...?

I think because they have not runned the models as you can see by the blank spaces on last three best track data and also no NEQ.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

As you can see 98L has all the data including the NEQ.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Weird. Even though the NHC gave it an Orange circle?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[brunota2003]

It's back on the S2K map.

[Yellow Evan]

Will this thing form?

[Kingarabian]

Will this thing form?

It should.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There is a small burst of convection going up directly atop 97E's circulation. With wind shear lowering, I wouldn't be surprised to see this continue organizing and it will likely become a tropical cyclone tomorrow. The environment is expected to be highly favorable for intensification, possibly rapid, after that time. In my opinion, the current model guidance is WAY too low and this will probably become a Category One or Two hurricane by Monday.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 11:00 a.m. PDT Tropical Weather Outlook kept the storm at 50%, by the way.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 550
MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should be declared a tropical depression at 2pm PDT.

[cycloneye]

Near 100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL
STORM IS FORMING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...AND IT HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

Any re-number yet?

[cycloneye]

Any re-number yet?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep972012_ep162012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210131801
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Extratropical94]

NRL is already showing 16E.PAUL and the best track file is up to 35-knot (TS strength). Should be TS Paul in about two hours..