BOB: INVEST 99B

[supercane4867]

15kts-1010mb-10.3N-91.6E

[supercane4867]

Up to 25kts

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 90.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A
292104Z AMSU-B PASS. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN DRIER AIR PRESENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN BAY OF BENGAL IN THE DAYS AHEAD, LIMITING THE TIME
WINDOW FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BECAUSE THE LLCC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.