2013 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

How's my beloved EPac looking

[cycloneye]

How's my beloved EPac looking

IMO,it looks like it will like 2012 that was an average season in that basin. I turned your post question at the 2013 Steering Pattern / Early Indicators thread into a new thread about the 2013 EPAC season.

[Ntxw]

I too am interested in what the forecasters/mets say for the Epac. This basin is the key to breaking the drought in the central part of the nation more so than even the gulf. Lately this region has emphasized quality over quantity lets see if that trend continues.

[CrazyC83]

If the deep tropics in the Atlantic do poorly, the EPAC will gain those waves. But if it is like 2010 and they all get going quick, the EPAC is bound to struggle as nothing gets there.

[cycloneye]

With exactly two months before the season starts I will post my EPAC numbers=18/10/5.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Probably just slightly less active than the Atlantic.

CFSv2 predicts below-average wind shear for the season, coupled with normal sea surface temperatures.

[Kingarabian]

Probably just slightly less active than the Atlantic.

CFSv2 predicts below-average wind shear for the season, coupled with normal sea surface temperatures.

Hopefully the CFSv2 gets it right.

[cycloneye]

Is interesting to see double ITCZ's in EPAC.

[South Texas Storms]

Hopefully the EPAC can help out the southern plains drought conditions this summer and fall!

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone else with any predictions? I say 11-8-5.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

One month left for the season to start. Let's see if there will be very early development but the models don't have anything yet.

[supercane4867]

Area of convection near 120W

[Kingarabian]

Thank you for posting, Supercane4867!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The CMC has dual tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific in a little over a week. And the CMC ensembles /do/ show a very wet basin.

The probably is pressures aren't low. Just a bunch of sheared-off convection it seems.

[supercane4867]

12z CMC



993mb 55kt

[Kingarabian]

That's really interesting.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It appears the CMC run was not a fluke [update from my last post]. The model and its ensembles continue to show the development of a tropical cyclone and the GFS is beginning to catch on as well.

Something to watch at the end of next week.

[Yellow Evan]

It appears the CMC run was not a fluke [update from my last post]. The model and its ensembles continue to show the development of a tropical cyclone and the GFS is beginning to catch on as well.

Something to watch at the end of next week.

You're getting my hopes up now. TC formation in April is unprecedented, only happen once and that was near 180W. I highly doubt this will happen just given how rare it is. Remember that unlike the ATL, they are few non-tropical origins in the EPAC and thus limiting off-season development. Really, from mid-November to mid-May, development in the EPAC east of 140W has only occurred once during an insane hurricane season that had a super strong El Nino on it's side. With that said, I do expect a quick start to the season.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Maybe the first invest for the EPAC soon? Perfect timing as the season starts on Wednesday. To note that some models develop in this basin late this week.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like its right on schedule.

Wonder if Atlantic will follow suit.