The Trough

[chadtm80]

[chadtm80]

When looking at loop, does it seem to be puling out to the west?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ChaserUK]

although the eye dissappears when it reappears its on the same tragectory as before - sure does look like a westward motion to me!

[chadtm80]

Sorry I actually ment the trough pulling west, when you look at loop of WV

[Stephanie]

With that trough, I does make it seem like Fabian will curve to the NW and then out to sea.

[chadtm80]

Sorry I actually ment the trough pulling west, when you look at loop at WV

Anyone else see that?

[Stephanie]

I did Chad. The ridge is pushing it west.

In your other topic about the 11:00 am discussion, Avila suggests that in a few days the ridge will push east - far enough to allow Fabian to turn more NW and N, missing the East Coast. There's still alot of time here for things to change and develop.

[wow]

No one knows, but it seems he will probably curve out.

[WXBUFFJIM]

The east coast ain't out of the woods by a long shot. Fabian continues to deepen, strengthen and we have a long way to go here!!!

Jim

[maverick]

What are the chances of Fabian stalling the front and hitting the east coast?

COME ON FABIAN!!!

[chadtm80]

Still seems to be pulling west.. When is it forecasted to buid back east?

[ColdFront77]

The National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida is saying that (as of today) that high pressure is expected to rebuild into the Bahamas and the Florida Straits by the end of the week.

This would keep Fabian generally on a westward track.

[weatherlover427]

Why is everyone saying it's gonna recurve when the evidence is inconclusive this far out? :?

[vbhoutex]

Why is everyone saying it's gonna recurve when the evidence is inconclusive this far out? :?

Because all the evidence has pointed to a recurve until today. We will know a lot more on the next model runs as they ingest the data from the high level recon currently in progress.

Also when a hurricane becomes as strong as Fabian is they sometimes will actually help rebuild a ridge to their N instead of moving through the weakness. The biggest question here for now is when is the 500mb trough going to build in and how far S. Some are thinking it will not build below 40N which may not erode the ridge as much and would make for a more W or WNW than NW track.

IN SIMPLE WORDS ALL THE CARDS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE AND FABIAN HOLDS THE ACE!!

[ColdFront77]

I don't believe all the models have been pointing to a recurve until today. The 120 hour points of the forecast model guidance showed a turn, but you can't extrapolate that for an established recurving tropical cyclone.

All forecasters I have heard since late last week have been saying that Fabian needs to be watched, "he" may affect the United States east coast sometime next week.

Without the knowledge of a ridge building back westward, then, then there is no proof one way or the other of Fabian going out to sea.

[vbhoutex]

I don't believe all the models have been pointing to a recurve until today. The 120 hour points of the forecast model guidance showed a turn, but you can't extrapolate that for an established recurving tropical cyclone.

Technically you are correct Tom. Not ALL have, but the vast majority of them have pointed to a recurve. I'm not sure what you mean by your second statement here. This is not yet an established recurving tropical cyclone, it is definitely an established tropical cyclone.

All forecasters I have heard since late last week have been saying that Fabian needs to be watched, "he" may affect the United States east coast sometime next week.

I agree fully. Nor did I make any statement otherwise. Fabian indeed needs to be watched very closely by everyone in the N Windward Island, the Bahamas and the ENTIRE East coast.

Without the knowledge of a ridge building back westward, then, then there is no proof one way or the other of Fabian going out to sea.

Correct.

[ColdFront77]

Good evening and thanks.

Looking at the latest model guidance over the last few days there hasn't been an established recurving out to sea with Fabian, meaning the end points (at the 120 hour point), can't possibly show us that a tropical cyclone will move out to sea.

Tropical systems can show signs of recurving and then a high to the north builds (or rebuilds) and turns the storm more westerly (if not [due] west) toward the United States rather than eventually north to northeastward.

[stormie_skies]

Let's face it, it ain't over till its over..... :o