Fabian likely to 145 mph on the 11 pm advisory

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Stormsfury
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Fabian likely to 145 mph on the 11 pm advisory

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 31, 2003 8:20 pm

With the SSD numbers at 6.5 and 7.0 from the Air Force T numbers. The overall organization of Fabian is of a classic hurricane. The eye has expanded and is clear straight down to the sea surface and is about 15 nm wide. Cloud tops have cooled though some warming on the SE and E just recently. Fabian has an awesome representation on satellite imagery.
Also, the 0000 UTC initializing Fabian at 125 kts.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Large scale IR still
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_ATL/et0.gif
Last edited by Stormsfury on Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Stephanie
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#2 Postby Stephanie » Sun Aug 31, 2003 8:28 pm

He is a beauty!
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 31, 2003 8:39 pm

Right now, I'm not expecting Fabian to reach Cat 5 status ... though, it's remotely possible.

The maximum potential intensity chart do NOT support a Cat 5 in it's current location.

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It's beautiful and dangerous!!

#4 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sun Aug 31, 2003 8:46 pm

Beauty filled with danger!!! That's the best way to describe this!! 145 mph sounds right for 11 pm with a 936 mb pressure. That definitely links well!!!

Jim
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#5 Postby BEER980 » Sun Aug 31, 2003 9:31 pm

Thanks for the maps. Thats one site that escaped my bookmarks but I put it in there now.
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 31, 2003 9:36 pm

Well, I slightly overestimated ...

Officially 140 mph at 11 pm EDT ...

SF
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2003 9:37 pm

Stormsfury you were very close it is 140 mph at the 11 advisory but almost you nailed it.
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