Area Expected to Form in Pacific (Is Invest 90E)

[hurricanes1234]

This thread is to discuss an area of low pressure expected to form beyond 48 hours.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

Models showing anything beyond a minimal tropical storm? Do conditions look good for anything beyond that strength?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Sorry, I meant to post this in the Talkin' Tropics forum.

[cycloneye]

Sorry, I meant to post this in the Talkin' Tropics forum.

Moved it to here.

[hurricanes1234]

So what are the models showing? I've noticed that all these areas are forming in the same place and attaining similar intensities, and all are extremely short-lived. Will this produce a notable storm, or will it be like the minimal storms in the past month?

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN A FEW DAYS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

[Cyclenall]

So what are the models showing? I've noticed that all these areas are forming in the same place and attaining similar intensities, and all are extremely short-lived. Will this produce a notable storm, or will it be like the minimal storms in the past month?

I noticed they are all forming in the same place as well. The models keep showing a lower pressure area right off the coast that continues. Not sure what is causing it but it churns out these baby TSs like butter. There doesn't seem to be any tropical waves entering the basin so its a stuck pattern and maybe outside of one other system from a different source, that will be it.

[Yellow Evan]

Either way, this is likely another dud tropical storm that this time will not affect land.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

A LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW
DAYS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.

[supercane]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 090546
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN SEP 8 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WHILE THE LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA LATER THIS WEEK.

<snip>

Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOEP+shtml/090546_MIATWOEP.shtml

[Alyono]

seems like the same broad low that may trigger a TC in the BOC

[cycloneye]

NHC no longer mentions this area in five day outlook.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 9 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[TheStormExpert]

No longer mentioned as of the 8am TWO.

[hurricanes1234]

Is this the same area? It looks large on the TWO image.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Is Invest 90E. Go to active storms/invests forum.