SIO: INVEST 91S

[jaguarjace]

4.0S 94.2E

[hurricanes1234]

I think it needs to move away from the equator. It's just a couple degrees below it, where there is negligible Coriolis force.

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Day Outlook for Western Region
Issued at 11:57 am WST on Monday 2 December 2013.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low near 5S 94E may intensify in the coming days and drift to the south,
possibly entering the Western Region on Thursday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday: Very Low
Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Low

[Grifforzer]

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area

Issued Monday, 2nd December 2013, Time 07.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:

None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:

Suspect area with minimum pressure 1006 mb is observed in Hindian Ocean west of Bengkulu near 3.5 S 94.7 E, and moving Southeast.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Tuesday (tomorrow) : medium possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility

[stormkite]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=p ... H87eiks88w

[jaguarjace]

JTWC:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0S 100.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD BUT
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 031128Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN THE DEFINITION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT HAS SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WHILE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MINIMAL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW IS
BEING COUNTERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Day Outlook for Western Region
Issued at 1:29 pm WST on Wednesday 4 December 2013.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low is about 500km northeast of Cocos Island (near 8S 100E) and is
expected to continue moving generally south then southwest over the next couple
of days. There is a small chance the system could develop into a tropical
cyclone. Even if it doesn't develop, Cocos Island could experience heavy
showers or rain, thunderstorms and strong squally winds during Saturday as the
low passes to the north of the island.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Low

[stormkite]

Looks ok for a invest given a low chance at best.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 97.1E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 99.7E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM NORTHEAST OF
COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LLCC EVIDENT IN A 041352Z SSMIS PASS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
IS BEING COUNTERED BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AT 27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[stormkite]

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (the Centre) Jakarta

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR GROWTH

Tropical Cyclone Growth Prospects for Indonesia to the South of the equator
Issued on Thursday, December 5, 2013 9:30 pm.

Tropical cyclones are currently available in parts of Indonesia to the South of the equator:
Nothing.

The growth potential of tropical cyclones:
Seeds of tropical cyclones with minimum air pressure 1007 mb formed in the Indian Ocean about 9 LS 99 BT, southwest of Bengkulu, and move south to southwest

The potential to grow into a tropical cyclone in the day:
Friday (tomorrow): a small chance
Saturday (day after tomorrow): a small chance
Sunday (3 days away): a small chance

[jaguarjace]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Day Outlook for Western Region
Issued at 1:12 pm WST on Saturday 7 December 2013.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low remains about 210km north-northeast of Cocos Island (near 10S 98E)
and is expected drift over the next couple of days. There remains a small
chance the system could develop into a tropical cyclone. Even if it doesn't
develop, Cocos Island could experience heavy showers or rain, thunderstorms and
squally winds from this system.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Sunday: Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Low

[hurricanes1234]

Convection has diminished. I don't think this will form into anything much, that's if it forms into something at all.