South of Fiji
SPAC: INVEST 92P
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 09/2300 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S 178.7E
AT 092100 UTC. MOVING SOUHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT VIS AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 09/2300 UTC 2013 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S 178.7E
AT 092100 UTC. MOVING SOUHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT VIS AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED OR DEEPENED MUCH IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2905
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Could this be a repeat of the previous invest? This season has gotten off to an odd start, with a lot of the depressions in SPAC so far occurring in October.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2905
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: SPAC: INVEST 92P
I have a strong feeling this will bust like the majority of invests here so far, since the 2013-2014 season began. The convection continues to be shallow and disorganised, due to that dry air to its west and north.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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hurricanes1234
- Category 5
- Posts: 2905
- Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
- Location: Trinidad and Tobago
Re: SPAC: INVEST 92P
Nothing but a convectionless swirl left of this system. Next invest please... 
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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