SPAC: MIKE - Tropical Cyclone

[cycloneye]

93P INVEST 140314 1800 17.0S 163.0W SHEM 15 NA

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5S 163.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING AND UNORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG A HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. AN
180437Z 37GHZ SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A CHAOTIC
STRUCTURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS DUE TO THE
ELONGATED AND CONVERGENT NATURE OF THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[stormkite]

WTPS21 PGTW 190230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S 160.7W TO 24.7S 160.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3S 160.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
162.7W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 160.4W, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER
AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 182028Z ASCAT PASS. THIS
ASCAT PASS SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THIS DISTURBANCE, AND STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LLCC AND A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR TERM, PARTICULARLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.
THE DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EARLY SIGNS OF THIS
TRANSITION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. BECAUSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 200230Z.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

20P MIKE 140319 0600 20.5S 159.3W SHEM 35 996

[HurricaneBill]

Mike, we hardly knew you.