Prognostic Discussion on Fabian and Future Track

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 6:50 pm

Hurricane Fabian
Prognostic Discussion #1
September 1st, 2003 8 pm EDT

The story tonight in the Tropical Atlantic is obviously, Hurricane Fabian. Ok, I've been avoiding making any calls or decisions regarding Fabian until now. Now I think I have enough datasets and confidence to actually make a low to medium confidence call on this storm.

Obviously, all the track model guidance in the world and Fabian has consistently been left of the track model guidance. However, Fabian will make the turn, but where is the question.

Here's the answer ...

Look out west. A large trough is going to be carved out coming down from Western Canada and move ESE across the Northern Plains, and drop down into the Central States. Meanwhile, the remnant vorticity of Grace will also be heading NE slowly and waiting on the trough. Finally, the soon to be invest in the Western Caribbean. As the large trough, the remnant vorticity of Grace and the suspected low pressure (tropical) develops in the Eastern GOM, it is like a three way triple play with pretty much sets up a roadblock for Fabian, and in fact, in between the High and Trough, Fabian may actually RACE NNE...

Basically speaking, I'll lay it out on the line. I do not believe Florida or the Southeast will be threatened area at this time. In fact, my attention will turn to the NE and particularly the Canadian Maritimes. This is my best track estimate at this time.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Temp/Fabian.JPG

I am a little bit further west than NHC for two reasons. First, the model guidance has been consistently right of the actual track and secondly, with three separate areas of low pressure. (First, the large trough digging down, then with Grace, and the depending on the future system currently in the Caribbean) will tend to hold up the trough somewhat, but at the same time, will serve to make it a little deeper.
This is not the full predicted track of Fabian and once again, stated above, conditions ahead may actually cause Fabian to scream NNE ahead of the longwave trough that's carved out. Obviously, there's a lot of variables here, especially the Caribbean system. In the short term, I feel pretty confident about the continued WNW and then NW turn, but I do not think that it will be a sharp one but a very gradual curve.

SF

#2 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:03 pm

Great analysis as usual SF!

SacrydDreamz · #3 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:12 pm

The ridge in the east is awfully strong though.... doesn't look to be weakening much per WV loop.. We're gonna have a fight on our hands!
:11:

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:35 pm

Well SF we pretty much agree except on the end results..................Cant say i disagree with you but im leaning towards a possible stall because of the system dropping into the northern plains which seems to be headed more towards the east rather then the south which i think if anything will keep anything North of the Mid Atlantic going east out to sea?......................Either way that system imo holds alot of the cards as to what or where Fabian will go or do.......................The gulf system is somewhat problematic at best and even holds a few of the cards possibly depending on its finall track up into the USA......................Either way great Discussion as always:)

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 7:41 pm

king of weather wrote:Well SF we pretty much agree except on the end results..................Cant say i disagree with you but im leaning towards a possible stall because of the system dropping into the northern plains which seems to be headed more towards the east rather then the south which i think if anything will keep anything North of the Mid Atlantic going east out to sea?......................Either way that system imo holds alot of the cards as to what or where Fabian will go or do.......................The gulf system is somewhat problematic at best and even holds a few of the cards possibly depending on its finall track up into the USA......................Either way great Discussion as always:)

I mention that with the triple play but I still think it's close enough to the EC. However, you'll notice that I'm 3º further west than the official NHC track and left of most all the model guidance. I'm still concerned about the Northeast and Canadian Maritimes (a lot like Derek Ortt is)

SF

obxhurricane · #6 Postby **obxhurricane** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 8:52 pm

Like we said earlier this week...recurve at 65. We've known this all aong, and it has yet to change. Fabian will be a threat to Bermuda, and possibly the maritimes, and of course shipping traffic.

For those expecting a U.S. landfall or brush, you can stick a fork in Fabian. He's done. I advise you to turn your attention to the NW Caribbean.

SacrydDreamz · #7 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Sep 01, 2003 9:55 pm

obxhurricane wrote:Like we said earlier this week...recurve at 65. We've known this all aong, and it has yet to change. Fabian will be a threat to Bermuda, and possibly the maritimes, and of course shipping traffic.

For those expecting a U.S. landfall or brush, you can stick a fork in Fabian. He's done. I advise you to turn your attention to the NW Caribbean.

Yes oh great one.. :roll:

This is what I did with you insiteful analysis
:33:

Why don't you explain your reasoning..

#8 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 12:15 am

Yes oh great one..

OBXHurricane, I hope you didn't feel insulted by that in the least! I'm sure that SacrydDreamz saying that was just an accident though.

Anyway, I am thinking no landfall for Fabian, but you never know sometimes. I'm still watching it like a hawk in the sky.

-Andrew92

SacrydDreamz · #9 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:28 am

Andrew92 wrote:
Yes oh great one..

OBXHurricane, I hope you didn't feel insulted by that in the least! I'm sure that SacrydDreamz saying that was just an accident though.

-Andrew92

No, I meant it.. I don't like the condecending attitude at all. "We've known this all along?!?!" No you haven't! And then this, "I advise you to turn your attention to the NW Caribbean.." :?:

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:33 am

Looks like no landfall in the CONUS. Perhaps Newfoundland. If it does hit US mainland it will be New England.

deb_in_nc · #11 Postby **deb_in_nc** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:34 am

Until Fabian is out of the picture I will watch it. Because hurricanes ARE
unpredictible and that will be the standard line if it doesn't make the turn soon enough. :roll:

The way I see it, all it takes is one little thing that everybody misses to make the track fall apart. Fabian will do what God wants it to do, not what man says it will do. Sure I agree that forcasting these things has become tons better than they used to be. BUT, all it takes is a bunch of cocky people telling everyone not to worry about it,
then it comes ashore. All because things didn't come together the way they were supposed to. Like it or not it's my opinion, and felt the need to get it off my chest.

Debbie

JCT777 · #12 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 7:42 am

SF - Great update. It does appear as though Fabian has taken the turn and will not hit the U.S. east coast south of New England. From coastal New England through the Canadian Maritime Provinces, this needs to be watched carefully as it may be a close call.

Tip · #13 Postby **Tip** » Tue Sep 02, 2003 7:43 am

SF looking at the CMC and GFS ensembles at 0z I get the sense that there may be a subtle shift west after about 35n or am I just seeing things?

Prognostic Discussion on Fabian and Future Track

Prognostic Discussion on Fabian and Future Track

Andrew, I'm with you.

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