EPAC: FAUSTO - Remnants

[jaguarjace]

9.5N 118.4W


Fausto Storm Floater

[Extratropical94]

This is the 20/20 system (Disturbance #2)

2. A small low pressure area located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any
development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next
few days while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 46 48 47 43 37 32 26
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 40 46 48 47 43 37 32 26
V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 33 36 36 35 33 29
SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 4 6 8 15 13 20 23 32
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.0 26.6 25.6 24.8 24.2

[Yellow Evan]

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized this morning
in association with a low pressure area located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Further development of this disturbance is possible as
it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[supercane4867]

30-35kt winds with a LLC perhaps closed

[Yellow Evan]

Updated: Satellite wind data indicate that the low pressure area
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is likely producing winds to gale
force to the southeast of its center. Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has been decreasing over the past
few hours, any increase in thunderstorm activity could result in
the formation of a tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow while the
system moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

Maybe this one is a crossover to CPAC?

[Steve820]

^ Yeah, it does seem possible that it might cross over to the CPac.

I'm thinking we'll see a moderate TS (around 50 mph) out of this invest (Future-Fausto), but there's a slight chance it might get stronger than that because it has plenty of warm water in the way. Yep, another weak fishspinner.

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe this one is a crossover to CPAC?

It should be gone by then.

[Yellow Evan]

How is this not a TS?

[wxman57]

Looks like at least a TD.

[hurricanes1234]

This is similar to how Narda developed last year, very quickly and it started off strong, but it fell apart before it reached any appreciable strength. I expect something to that effect because of unfavourable MJO. Maybe we see a minimal hurricane from this?

Amateur opinion only.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Saved loop.

This appears to have been a tropical cyclone since at least 12z, I'm not sure why advisories haven't been initiated on Fausto yet. It very clearly meets criteria, though I suppose it's possible there were some questions whether it had a closed LLC before this afternoon's ASCAT pass.

[Yellow Evan]

This is similar to how Narda developed last year, very quickly and it started off strong, but it fell apart before it reached any appreciable strength. I expect something to that effect because of unfavourable MJO. Maybe we see a minimal hurricane from this?

Amateur opinion only.

I agree. These kinds of storms can have a lot of ups and downs, so I think we could see a minimal hurricane.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.5N 120.1W
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 330 PM PDT...2230 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST. FAUSTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO THROUGH TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Yellow Evan]

Why no disco yet?

[cycloneye]

Why no disco yet?

Here it is.


TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062014
330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014

The area of low pressure located about 1000 nmi southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California has acquired enough organized
convection near the well-defined low-level circulation center to be
classified as a tropical cyclone. Although convection has been
waxing and waning over the past 12 hours or so, a new burst of deep
convection with cloud tops as cold as -83C have developed near and
just south of the center. The system is being designated as
Tropical Storm Fausto based on wind data from two earlier ASCAT
passes at 1704 UTC and 1757 UTC that indicated reliable wind speed
of 35-38 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow is
good and continues to expand in all quadrants.

The initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt and is based primarily on
microwave satellite data. Fausto is expected to move westward for
the next day or so and then turn toward the west-northwest after
that as the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. By Days 4 and 5, a
weakness is forecast by all of the global models to develop between
140W-150W longitude, which should allow Fausto to turn more toward
the northwest. Although some of the models show the cyclone turning
into the ridge and beginning to recurve, the official forecast only
shows a slight stair-step in the track since the GFS and ECMWF
models show the ridge building back westward at the end of the Day 5
period. The official advisory track is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models since they have a better depiction of the small tropical
cyclone.

Fausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment consisting
of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level regime, and over
sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for at least the next 72
hours. These conditions should allow for at least some gradual
strengthening to occur, and the official forecast closely follows a
blend of the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM models. However, those
intensity forecasts are based on the medium BAM model, which takes
the cyclone well north of the official forecast track and into
strong shear conditions and over colder water by Days 4 and 5. If
Fausto fallows a low-latitude track as indicated by the NHC
forecast, then strengthening rather than weakening could occur in
the latter periods.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2230Z 9.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 9.7N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 10.0N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 10.7N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 11.5N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 12.6N 136.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 14.7N 140.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[somethingfunny]

Well this is a surprise!

[Yellow Evan]

It has some potential to become a hurricane IMO. However, ITCZ storms like this tend to have a lot of highs and lows.

[hurricanes1234]

Oh my gosh! I didn't even expect this! I came on at 0:00 UTC looking for a percent and saw a storm instead! And the advisory was at an odd time! How's it looking compared to an hour ago?