Surface trough offshore the southeast U.S. coast

[wyq614]

A swirl, vortex or something like that has persisted to the East of Bahamas for several days and it seems the thunderstorm activity around it has increased notably. To my very unprofessional eye it seems to be a cold core low. Is it possible for some subtropical or tropical development out there?

Sorry for not uploading images, because the Internet condition in Cuba is too poor for me to be able to do it.

[Dave C]

Yes it's one of several upper lows positioned in an axis from the west atlantic into the waters east of the Yucatan peninsula What they call the tutt here is a semi permanent feature.

[Alyono]

some models are indicating development of this feature near the Carolinas on Monday

[northjaxpro]

some models are indicating development of this feature near the Carolinas on Monday

Yeah, the GEOS-05 0Z model run actually shows a wave of low pressure drifting northwest to either over or near the East Central Florida coast within the 54 hour period ending by 06Z Monday. Afterwards, it turns this aforementioned feature north/northeast heading up toward the NC coast. Also, this model has Bertha becoming an open wave over/near Hispaniola and pretty much takes the moisture from the remnants of Bertha and merge it with the wave off the EC FL coast by Monday.

So, not jumping totally with this surface trough feature currently in the Bahamas, but it does have model support and it is something to watch carefully the next couple of days.

[northjaxpro]

The NHC mentions this possibility I discussed in the above post in their 5 p.m. discussion on TS Bertha:

excerpt

There are now three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha.
The scenario for the official forecast is that Bertha survives its
current lack of structure, land interaction, and dry air
entrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in
about 36 hours. At that point, it would likely intensify until
the onset of extratropical transition in 96-120 hours. Using this
scenario, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
forecast and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in about 96
hours. The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical
wave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration later
when the system reaches the more favorable environment. A new third
possibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over
the northwestern Bahamas. The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to
get strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the
other models are less bullish on the its development. Later model
runs should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.

[jinftl]

Latest NOAA Tropical Cyclone Formation graphic depicts this area...

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I just saw that graphic awhile ago. It is looking more and more as time progresses that a Low Pressure area just may form somewhere near or just off the East Central Coast of Florida by Monday. More models are jumping on this solution.

I'm very intrigued on what the next runs will show. We already know a Low Pressure is already beginning to form in the NW Bahamas at this time, which NHC confirmed in their latest discussion on Bertha.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the
Bahamas is associated with a surface trough. Any development of this
system is expected to be limited tonight and Sunday as it moves
generally northward at around 10 mph. By Monday, upper-level winds
along the southeastern coast of the United States are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

No development here! ...NEXT!

[Dean4Storms]

That area South of Miami still needs monitoring, not sure why NHC cancelled even mentioning it. Convection refiring and some mid level rotation is present.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[HurricaneBelle]

According to this satellite pic tweeted by TWC's Stu Ostro:

http://twitpic.com/e9gtud

It looks as though a low has formed off Jacksonville. Our steering flow in WC FL I've noticed is north to south.

[NDG]

This is just an elongated surface trough with a couple of mid level vorticities, too close to land to do much as the trough will pick this up and send it NE.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks somewhat interesting nonetheless.

[tropicwatch]

Center is possibly close to lake Okeechobee.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 22.54,1110

[TheStormExpert]

Center is possibly close to lake Okeechobee.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wi ... 22.54,1110

Just SE of Miami and Homestead I see some spin.

[TheStormExpert]

Also an app I have on my iPhone called Windscape shows spin in the vicinity of Ft. Lauderdale.

[GrimReaper]

some models are indicating development of this feature near the Carolinas on Monday

Yeah, the GEOS-05 0Z model run actually shows a wave of low pressure drifting northwest to either over or near the East Central Florida coast within the 54 hour period ending by 06Z Monday. Afterwards, it turns this aforementioned feature north/northeast heading up toward the NC coast. Also, this model has Bertha becoming an open wave over/near Hispaniola and pretty much takes the moisture from the remnants of Bertha and merge it with the wave off the EC FL coast by Monday.

So, not jumping totally with this surface trough feature currently in the Bahamas, but it does have model support and it is something to watch carefully the next couple of days.

I was noticing that the cloud types and movement are just "weird" today in St. Augustine. is that a reflection of this situation? Ok, I know, "weird" is not an officially recognized meteorological term.

[Steve820]

This is just a random AOI seems like, so I'd be very shocked if it was even invested. It does look a bit interesting though.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah Grim Reaper, we have a northeast surface wind, and upper level south-southwest wind flow, which explains the different cloud motions we are seeing aroung our area today.

I have been paying close attention today regarding the trough over and just off the Florida East Coast. Earlier today, there was a mid level spin just off the NE FL coast that has since now moved north to off the SC coast. The other mid-level spin is near the SE FL coast and this area has looked more interesting as the day has progressed. Whether or not it has made it to the surface is debatable, but recent imagery still shows a good spin in that area. Whatever happens with this area will move rapidly north/northeastward as the trough pulls it quickly out the region the next 24 hours.

Interesting day monitoring this trough across the FL East Coast today.

[AJC3]

:uarrow: Yeah Grim Reaper, we have a northeast surface wind, and upper level south-southwest wind flow, which explains the different cloud motions we are seeing aroung our area today.

I have been paying close attention today regarding the trough over and just off the Florida East Coast. Earlier today, there was a mid level spin just off the NE FL coast that has since now moved north to off the SC coast. The other mid-level spin is near the SE FL coast and this area has looked more interesting as the day has progressed. Whether or not it has made it to the surface is debatable, but recent imagery still shows a good spin in that area. Whatever happens with this area will move rapidly north/northeastward as the trough pulls it quickly out the region the next 24 hours.

Interesting day monitoring this trough across the FL East Coast today.

Eyeballing the surface METARs over the peninsula places a broad/weak surface vort center near and to the N-NW of Lake Okeechobee. Expecting continued wet/stormy conditions through early week here. Deep layer trough will carry this surface trough and Bertha off to our NE through late tomorrow.

Courtesy of Wundermap/Wxunderground...