ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

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ATL: DOLLY - REMNANTS - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:23 pm

AL, 97, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 110N, 281W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 110N, 295W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2014082406, , BEST, 0, 110N, 309W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2014082412, , BEST, 0, 110N, 322W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 110N, 335W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116643&hilit=&p=2407739#p2407739
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#2 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:26 pm

navy site dont have it yet here link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
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Re:

#3 Postby Cunxi Huang » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:28 pm

floridasun78 wrote:navy site dont have it yet here link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

But FNMOC has!
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
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#4 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:31 pm

All I can say is RECURVE!!!! :)



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Re:

#5 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:34 pm

SeGaBob wrote:All I can say is RECURVE!!!! :)



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The more hurricanes recurve, the ACE goes higher. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#6 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:35 pm

Perhaps thats the weak low in the Bahamas on 9/4?

Image
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#7 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:36 pm

ok now on navy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#8 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:37 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Perhaps thats the weak low in the Bahamas on 9/4?

http://i.imgur.com/DQcEFSP.gif


I think so. Right now this appears it will be a borderline invest or TD for a while.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#9 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:38 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:Perhaps thats the weak low in the Bahamas on 9/4?

Image

i think models not picking up 97l good yet
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Re:

#10 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:43 pm

SeGaBob wrote:All I can say is RECURVE!!!! :)



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Really? Please without any reasoning behind such post. Way to early for stuff like this.
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Re: Re:

#11 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:44 pm

SFLcane wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:All I can say is RECURVE!!!! :)



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Really? Please without any reasoning behind such post. Way to early for stuff like this.



It was intended to be more of a humorous post. I know it's too early...I figured someone would say it sooner or later so I just got it out of the way.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#12 Postby HurriGuy » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:46 pm

Image


If the ridge can stay strong enough or if 97L moves fast enough, could get a little interesting end of next week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#13 Postby Senobia » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:50 pm

Dang, where did this come from overnight? :?:
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#14 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 2:51 pm

NHC 2pm EST TWO:

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Unfavorable upper-level winds and proximity to dry
air are expected to inhibit development during the next few days.
However, environmental conditions could become more conducive by the
end of the week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Image

Saved loop:
Image
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#15 Postby meriland23 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:13 pm

No sense in assuming this is a tuna yet. The track also heavily depends on the speed at which it moves, when it forms, and the strength it gets to. Slight changes could mean the difference between a fish and a hit. Its 50\50 to me at this moment.
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Re:

#16 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:23 pm

meriland23 wrote:No sense in assuming this is a tuna yet. The track also heavily depends on the speed at which it moves, when it forms, and the strength it gets to. Slight changes could mean the difference between a fish and a hit. Its 50\50 to me at this moment.


The biggest uncertainty might be whether Cristobal can manage to create a weakness in the Central Atlantic that could cause this to recurve there but actually global models are currently in excellent agreement that the system ends up near the NE Leewards in about 6-7 days from now..
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:25 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:24 pm

The Cristobal trough is the key for this one. Can it suck this one in too? If so, early recurve. Otherwise...nothing to turn it at all.
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Re: Re:

#18 Postby meriland23 » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:
meriland23 wrote:No sense in assuming this is a tuna yet. The track also heavily depends on the speed at which it moves, when it forms, and the strength it gets to. Slight changes could mean the difference between a fish and a hit. Its 50\50 to me at this moment.


The biggest uncertainty might be whether Cristobal can manage to create a weakness in the Central Atlantic that could cause this to recurve there but actually global models are currently in excellent agreement that the system ends up near the NE Leewards in about 6-7 days from now.


Hmm iono we shall see :p. Definitely one to keep a eye on at the moment.
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SeGaBob

#19 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:27 pm

All joking aside I do agree this will be one to watch for the time being. :)
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#20 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 24, 2014 3:32 pm

:uarrow: To clarify my statement above, global models have it near the NE Leewards in about 5 days from now
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