Weak low in NE Gulf of Mexico: (Is Invest 95L)

[ftolmsteen]

Slight turning in the NE gulf. BayNews9 radar's future cast feature actually spins this up to a low.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/ba ... radar.html

[cycloneye]

Hi.I made your post a new topic thread as the other one where you posted had anything to do with your area and was made 6 days ago.

[NDG]

There nothing more than a trough of low pressure at the surface, no closed low. Pressures are very high. Northerly shear is forecasted to continue through at least Monday nothing but beneficial rains for the Peninsula.

[caneman]

Not really beneficial rain at this point. We've been having flooding.

[NDG]

Still beneficial for my part of the state, some area lakes had gone down in level because of how dry May & June were.

[Sanibel]

We were behind in rain so we needed every drop.



It is still too early and unfavorable, but I think a weak formation is attempting to develop but isn't making it.

[lovingseason2013]

Hopefully SE Florida will get some rain, it has been really dry down there.

[Sanibel]

TWC says the models might be lining something up for GOM.

[tropicwatch]

There nothing more than a trough of low pressure at the surface, no closed low. Pressures are very high. Northerly shear is forecasted to continue through at least Monday nothing but beneficial rains for the Peninsula.

North of Tampa the shear has come down considerably.

[lovingseason2013]

What is the time frame and where does it look to heading?

[TheAustinMan]

What is the time frame and where does it look to heading?

Going strictly by the 12z ECMWF, a broad low pressure area begins developing off of the Florida east coast on Sunday and begins tracking north-northeast, becoming more well-defined as time passes; the system passes near the Outer Banks next Friday morning and nears Cape Cod next Saturday (August 1) afternoon. Nova Scotia and New Brunswick would be impacted by the modeled system on August 2. Again this is just one model solution; a great discrepancy in forecasts for this system exists between the models.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Nimbus]

The east coast radar echoes off JAX do appear to show the southwestern pole of a trough circulation.
West coast of Florida is getting flooding rains 6-10 inches in some local areas, but I don't see any signs of a surface circulation.

[TheAustinMan]

Current (23:00 UTC January 24) MSLP isobars from the Southeastern US.



Source: Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis

[northjaxpro]

For now, we should consider changing the title of this thread. The thread title is suggesting that something is there in that region. However, at the current time, there is no Low Pressure area in the NE GOM at the surface. However, the area will be monitored in the next five days for potential development, as we have touched on in itthe Global Model Runs thread.

[gatorcane]

Convection is on the increase in the NE Gulf, though as northjaxpro pointed out, there is no low there at the moment. Shear is dropping across the region. Note some of that convection is due to daytime heating enhancing thunderstorm development (panhandle convection)

[northjaxpro]

The ULL has been moving at a good clip to the west and is now entering into Northern Mexico out of the BOC. This is allowing for shear to drop off considerably across the Northern Gulf region into the NE GOM. Definitely bears watching this area the next few days in my view.

[TheStormExpert]

Hammy mentioned several days ago that one front can actually spawn two Tropical Cyclones. Most recent example he said was in 2005 with Hurricanes Nate & Ophelia. Of course that was in 2005 where anything seemed to happen.

But nonetheless it's worth watching.

[northjaxpro]

No doubt a frontal system can trigger the development of multiple tropical entities, if the environment is conducive for it to happen of course. It is plausible this could potentially happen again.

[NDG]

Local Mets keep mentioning a front, but there is very little evidence of a front left any more, I see nothing but a trough of low pressure left behind.

[Javlin]

Looks like some colder cloud tops are on the rebound maybe?Thee ULL low to W also seems to be enhancing the TStorms ATTM.