Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa (Is Invest 95L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa (Is Invest 95L)

#1 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:25 pm

Both the GFS and EC (and UKMET) have been developing it the past several runs.

Latest SAT image out of Africa shows a vigorous wave that should emerge off the coast in the next 24-36 hours

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Sep 12, 2015 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

HurricaneFan
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 192
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:16 pm
Location: Anguilla,Leeward Islands 18.3N 63.0W

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#2 Postby HurricaneFan » Sat Sep 12, 2015 8:50 pm

Are the models also predicting it to follow the same track as the one in front of it?
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#3 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 12, 2015 9:00 pm

HurricaneFan wrote:Are the models also predicting it to follow the same track as the one in front of it?


Some models (GEM and UKMET) are showing this system following the same track.

Other models (ECMWF and GFS) build back a ridge in the wake of the other system recurving and send this system further west.

12Z ECMWF at 168 hours:
Image

18Z GFS at the same timeframe:
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2840
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#4 Postby blp » Sat Sep 12, 2015 9:30 pm

Glad this thread was created. This one is not a definite recurve like the other. The trend has been to build back the ridge. Amazing how the MDR east of 40W keeps pumping them out. Can you imagine if this was not an El Nino year.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#5 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:13 pm

You got to think NHC is going to mention this one soon. In fact development may begin in the next 48-72 hours looking at the models.
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re:

#6 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:27 pm

gatorcane wrote:You got to think NHC is going to mention this one soon. In fact development may begin in the next 48-72 hours looking at the models.

In that case I'd be very surprised if they don't mention it any later than 8pm.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#7 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:35 pm

The 12zGFS recurves this between 50 and 55W

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145336
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:39 pm

A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa several
hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance over the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7351
Age: 45
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#9 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa several
hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this disturbance over the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent


people ask why no mention and then voila there it is but its a pretty strong wave and will probably be a recurver

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

TheStormExpert

#10 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 13, 2015 12:58 pm

As we head into mid/late September it becomes harder and harder for anything to make the trip across with stronger troughs now swinging through the U.S. and North Atlantic creating weaknesses.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#11 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:13 pm

The 12Z ECMWF develops this and not 93L.
0 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4232
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#12 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:18 pm

Sure is busy out there!

Image :eek:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re:

#13 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:22 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:As we head into mid/late September it becomes harder and harder for anything to make the trip across with stronger troughs now swinging through the U.S. and North Atlantic creating weaknesses.


This could actually lead to somewhat stronger storms though, we might get more Erika-1997's rather than having things shoved west into the shear wall.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#14 Postby Gustywind » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:25 pm

abajan wrote:Sure is busy out there!

Image :eek:

Traffic jam :eek: between yellow and red cards... September traffic is hot :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#15 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 1:56 pm

168 hours. Invest 93L is heading WNW as a 1016MB low and weak with this wave a hurricane heading WNW:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#16 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 13, 2015 5:35 pm

GFS also develops into a hurricane and recurves it well east of the Leewards just like the Euro. Big ACE Pumper.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145336
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 13, 2015 6:43 pm

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this wave over the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145336
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: Another Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:46 am

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this wave during the next several days while it moves westward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#19 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 14, 2015 6:48 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS E OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20W. CIRA LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
SHOW MODERATE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM THE SURFACE
TO 850 MB MAINLY IN ITS W AND S ENVIRONMENT WHERE SUPPORT
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 05N TO 10N
E OF 25W
.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#20 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 14, 2015 7:18 am

Since the Euro does not develop 93l, it looks to move this wave more west. It has also backed way off on how intense this wave gets.l which also allows it to go more west.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Stratton23 and 46 guests