What to expect for the rest of the 2015 season?

[PTrackerLA]

Just wondering what is everyone's thoughts on the rest of the season (mainly October) and what past strong El Nino years have had late season activity? I think we were all surprised by the intense development of Joaquin in late September, makes me wonder if things will shut down afterwards or not. I'm surprised the GOM did not have any significant TC this whole season as it tends to be "immune" from the negative effects of El Nino in years past, however it has remained hostile. Thoughts?

[galaxy401]

I think the season will be mostly quiet after Joaquin. There could be one more storm forming but it will likely have non-tropical origins.

[JtSmarts]

I think we may see 1-3 more storms (including 90L) before the season is over, not expecting any more major storms though. I also think the US streaks lives on as I don't think the Caribbean/Gulf will be able to produce one of those classic Oct/Nov majors.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Watching the Western Caribbean This month. Especially how far the front/trough dug down in the beginning of October May be an issue for the eastern Gulf in the coming weeks.

[HurricaneEric21]

Watching the Western Caribbean This month. Especially how far the front/trough dug down in the beginning of October May be an issue for the eastern Gulf in the coming weeks.

How so?

[NDG]

Well, back in early September I had declared Season Over for the western Atlantic Basic, it almost did until Jiaquin came along
So I am sure not going to make the same mistake lol.
Might see one or two more but in the subtropical Atlantic, but will not be surprised if maybe the Caribbean produces a sheared mess.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even if we don't get any more storms, I found this season one of the more exciting seasons in at least the last 2 or 3 years. I didn't expect near the activity that we saw....I can't even imagine how intense this season would have been without El Nino disrupting alot of the development. Can't wait to see what next year brings........

[Hammy]

As far as the rest of the season I am less optimistic than I was last year at this time, given the habit of many El Nino years to basically shut off as we head into October. I'd say at most one more storm develops, in the central Atlantic rather than Gulf or Caribbean, maybe something similar to Melissa 2013.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Watching the Western Caribbean This month. Especially how far the front/trough dug down in the beginning of October May be an issue for the eastern Gulf in the coming weeks.

How so?

If anything did manage to get going in the Western Caribbean, it would most likely get pulled North and NE ahead of a front.

[Sanibel]

That could be it.



Maybe not. North of Panama?

[Steve]

Just watched Weatherbell's Saturday summary, and Joe B thinks the current MJO pulse toward 2 led/leads to 7 storms. Apparently one is a slow mover near the Phillipines which he thinks could dump 4-5 feet of rain, there is a recurve, central pacific system, something forming off the Mexican coast but moving inland and dying, a western gulf system and then something off the SE Coast or Bahamas which could go out like Joaquin of get trapped and finally something comes out of the Caribbean 10-20 days) which will end the season. His over under is 2 more atlantic systems. He also thinks the Caribbean Storm could come up ala Ida 2009 since 2009 is the closest overall pattern to where we are heading between now and November

Maybe.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Just watched Weatherbell's Saturday summary, and Joe B thinks the current MJO pulse toward 2 led/leads to 7 storms. Apparently one is a slow mover near the Phillipines which he thinks could dump 4-5 feet of rain, there is a recurve, central pacific system, something forming off the Mexican coast but moving inland and dying, a western gulf system and then something off the SE Coast or Bahamas which could go out like Joaquin of get trapped and finally something comes out of the Caribbean 10-20 days) which will end the season. His over under is 2 more atlantic systems. He also thinks the Caribbean Storm could come up ala Ida 2009 since 2009 is the closest overall pattern to where we are heading between now and November

Maybe.

Just curious, Why should we listen to a Meteorologist who is forecasting a storm 10-20 Days out? He uses models correct, and they are subject to great error in the long range. With all due respect, does he have a Crystal Ball? What is his accuracy percentage? I don't mean to disrespect the guy, I just don't buy his forecasts.

[WPBWeather]

Just watched Weatherbell's Saturday summary, and Joe B thinks the current MJO pulse toward 2 led/leads to 7 storms. Apparently one is a slow mover near the Phillipines which he thinks could dump 4-5 feet of rain, there is a recurve, central pacific system, something forming off the Mexican coast but moving inland and dying, a western gulf system and then something off the SE Coast or Bahamas which could go out like Joaquin of get trapped and finally something comes out of the Caribbean 10-20 days) which will end the season. His over under is 2 more atlantic systems. He also thinks the Caribbean Storm could come up ala Ida 2009 since 2009 is the closest overall pattern to where we are heading between now and November

Maybe.

Just curious, Why should we listen to a Meteorologist who is forecasting a storm 10-20 Days out? He uses models correct, and they are subject to great error in the long range. With all due respect, does he have a Crystal Ball? What is his accuracy percentage? I don't mean to disrespect the guy, I just don't buy his forecasts.

Well his track record is as good to better than many Pro Mets. Storm2K does not have a corner on the market in that regard.

[Weatherwatcher98]

Just watched Weatherbell's Saturday summary, and Joe B thinks the current MJO pulse toward 2 led/leads to 7 storms. Apparently one is a slow mover near the Phillipines which he thinks could dump 4-5 feet of rain, there is a recurve, central pacific system, something forming off the Mexican coast but moving inland and dying, a western gulf system and then something off the SE Coast or Bahamas which could go out like Joaquin of get trapped and finally something comes out of the Caribbean 10-20 days) which will end the season. His over under is 2 more atlantic systems. He also thinks the Caribbean Storm could come up ala Ida 2009 since 2009 is the closest overall pattern to where we are heading between now and November

Maybe.

Just curious, Why should we listen to a Meteorologist who is forecasting a storm 10-20 Days out? He uses models correct, and they are subject to great error in the long range. With all due respect, does he have a Crystal Ball? What is his accuracy percentage? I don't mean to disrespect the guy, I just don't buy his forecasts.

Well his track record is as good to better than many Pro Mets. Storm2K does not have a corner on the market in that regard.

Ok thanks

[NDG]

I was just thinking that if it wasn't for Joaquin, which formed out of an ULL and not from an African Tropical Wave a very rare event, and found a pocket of great UL environment the season would had been dead since late July in our part of the Basin.
Chances of the US being impacted by a tropical system on the remainder of the season continue to go down, if it is not already 0%, IMO.



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[Steve]

No way it's near 0%. There may end up not being a direct hit, but there could be a couple of potential threats or impacts. The first would be remnants from the EPAC/surface trough in the SW Gulf or just inland Mexico, another (per GFS) is a surge with low pressure off the East Coast. It's farther offshore than yesterday, but continued shots of high pressure from the nw would have a shot at a block. GFS 15 day mjo forecast bullseyes on the EPAC 10/22. Looks like a strong pulse to me. Admittedly I barely understand kelvin waves and atmospheric impulses, but there GFS is forecasting it to be ripe. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hi/gfs.gif

[Steve]

Also the European operational brings up a spin next week into the tx/la border. A lot of people suggest it will be frontal since the front would be backing out the Gulf ahead of it, and that may be. But it's clearly related to and includes a surge from the EPAC. My guess would be watch there for a couple of days, and if something spins up or moves inland (or is monsoonal in the area) does some of the energy cross Mexico and juice the SW Gulf. It's near term, and it's the Euro (if the operational). Hey, I'm not making a judgment call, but if this pulse of the mjo stays significant as it crosses and slows across the area, there would be distinct possibilities for the Western Basin including the Gulf and Caribbean. 2015 seems to be one of the El Niño years where you could time development or surges. That's not always the case including El Niño years. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

[WPBWeather]

Also the European operational brings up a spin next week into the tx/la border. A lot of people suggest it will be frontal since the front would be backing out the Gulf ahead of it, and that may be. But it's clearly related to and includes a surge from the EPAC. My guess would be watch there for a couple of days, and if something spins up or moves inland (or is monsoonal in the area) does some of the energy cross Mexico and juice the SW Gulf. It's near term, and it's the Euro (if the operational). Hey, I'm not making a judgment call, but if this pulse of the mjo stays significant as it crosses and slows across the area, there would be distinct possibilities for the Western Basin including the Gulf and Caribbean. 2015 seems to be one of the El Niño years where you could time development or surges. That's not always the case including El Niño years. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

Good points. Many also missed the active MDR this season for whatever reasons.

[WPBWeather]

Also the European operational brings up a spin next week into the tx/la border. A lot of people suggest it will be frontal since the front would be backing out the Gulf ahead of it, and that may be. But it's clearly related to and includes a surge from the EPAC. My guess would be watch there for a couple of days, and if something spins up or moves inland (or is monsoonal in the area) does some of the energy cross Mexico and juice the SW Gulf. It's near term, and it's the Euro (if the operational). Hey, I'm not making a judgment call, but if this pulse of the mjo stays significant as it crosses and slows across the area, there would be distinct possibilities for the Western Basin including the Gulf and Caribbean. 2015 seems to be one of the El Niño years where you could time development or surges. That's not always the case including El Niño years. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

Good points. Many also missed the active MDR this season for whatever reasons.

[Steve]

That includes me. The east and central atlantic warmed up, and there were some strong waves some which were accompanied by surface lows. I didn't see it. I'll have to go back after the end of the season and re read what I put out there. I was centered east of here but overall west in the basin. I know I didn't have this many named storms, but I did later caution the shot at a SW Atlantic ACE storm which we got with Joaquin. It's probably going to have been successes and busts like always, but I want to wait til things are over before going back to see how I did. All that aside, I'm giving it a 65% shot for an interesting last couple of weeks of October.