ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

92L INVEST 151016 1800 16.6N 87.6W ATL 20 1009

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117649&start=0

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located in the Gulf of Honduras
associated with a tropical wave is producing a large area of
cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms across portions of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Land interaction is expected to preclude
significant development of this system during the next day or so
while it moves slowly west-northwestward across the Yucatan
Peninsula. However, some limited development is possible on Sunday
or Monday if the system emerges into the Bay of Campeche. Regardless
of tropical cyclone formation, this system could produce heavy
rainfall across portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[stormlover2013]

here we go babyyy gives us something to do now lol

[TheStormExpert]

Figured it would be an Invest sooner rather than later.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like some very broad rotation just off the Northeast coast of Belize. Appears to be headed off to the NW and will be inland very soon.

SFT

[blp]

My guess why to tag now is they want to start running the HWRF and GFDL because this heading toward land and won't see development for next several days at the earliest.

[cycloneye]

There is the low pressure as of 18z.

[Hammy]

I did suspect this would be first mentioned in the TWO today.

I'm still not trusting the models and thus remain very skeptical on development. That said, ignoring intensity, the GoM track of Edith in 1971 appears to be along similar lines to what some of the models are showing, albeit further south and west.

[gatorcane]

EC shows a hurricane into Texas/LA border in the long-range

Has Texas/SW LA ever been hit by a hurricane this late?

[wxman57]

The ridge over the SE U.S. is building with each model run next week. That could push this system into Mexico. Euro and GFS are trending west. GFS now keeps it inland over MX/TX. 12Z Euro changed from SE LA to south of Lake Charles. Way too far out to have any confidence.

[Weatherwatcher98]

The ridge over the SE U.S. is building with each model run next week. That could push this system into Mexico. Euro and GFS are trending west. GFS now keeps it inland over MX/TX. 12Z Euro changed from SE LA to south of Lake Charles. Way too far out to have any confidence.

I agree way too far out but Climatology goes against west.

[Weatherwatcher98]

EC shows a hurricane into Texas/LA border in the long-range

Has Texas/SW LA ever been hit by a hurricane this late?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Juan_(1985)

[stormlover2013]

yeah thats a pretty strong ridge over the se

[Weatherwatcher98]

I did suspect this would be first mentioned in the TWO today.

I'm still not trusting the models and thus remain very skeptical on development. That said, ignoring intensity, the GoM track of Edith in 1971 appears to be along similar lines to what some of the models are showing, albeit further south and west.

Too Late in the season for that?

[Weatherwatcher98]

I did suspect this would be first mentioned in the TWO today.

I'm still not trusting the models and thus remain very skeptical on development. That said, ignoring intensity, the GoM track of Edith in 1971 appears to be along similar lines to what some of the models are showing, albeit further south and west.

Too Late in the season for that?

Also 1971 was a La Nina.

[cycloneye]

Not too enthusiastic for now.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 35m35 minutes ago
Models are hinting of possible Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone in 6-10day. Lots to be resolved w/this one though and am somewhat skeptical

[gatorcane]

there is an elongated vorticity east of Belize and shear is dropping over that area

[Weatherwatcher98]

Not too enthusiastic for now.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 35m35 minutes ago
Models are hinting of possible Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone in 6-10day. Lots to be resolved w/this one though and am somewhat skeptical

One guys opinion

[gatorcane]

This is quite a vigorous wave for this time of year - look how massive the convection action is

[wxman57]

The ridge over the SE U.S. is building with each model run next week. That could push this system into Mexico. Euro and GFS are trending west. GFS now keeps it inland over MX/TX. 12Z Euro changed from SE LA to south of Lake Charles. Way too far out to have any confidence.

I agree way too far out but Climatology goes against west.

I wasn't suggesting it would move into the Gulf then turn west. It may track across the BoC into southern Mexico, with part of it becoming the TS south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Northern part may track north across Mexico to TX.