First sub zero (or zero) predictions

[Scott Patterson]

Since there was a first freeze prediction thread for those that live in warm climates, here is a thread for those that live in cold climates.

When do you predict that your town or city will drop to zero or below this season?

For me, I'm guessing that it will be late this year. I'm guessing November 30, which is later than normal. Last year our first was on November 12 and it was officially -18F on November 16th.

[psyclone]

I remember the insane cold that blasted CO last November.. crazy. I have a feeling lots of places that are marginally cold may not have any sub zero weather this year. meanwhile I'm still waiting for a sub 65 night...which I expect will happen tonight..

[WeatherGuesser]

Earliest I see for Record Lows for PAH was November 24 & 25, 1950 at -2

Since 2000, the earliest I see is December 24 & 25, 2004 at -6 and -8

In the last 3 years, the only time was February of '15

Most winters it doesn't seem to happen at all and I'm hoping this will be one of them.

[Scott Patterson]

Since we lived here (going on 12 years), the average first date of a 0 or subzero temperature is November 23. In the past 12 years, the dates have ranged between November 4 and December 4.

The average last date of a 0 or subzero temperature for that same time period is March 11, with dates ranging from February 11 to April 18 for the past 12 years.

Before we lived here, it has dropped below zero in October, but not since 1991.

At the official weather station (in operation since 1982), here are the record lows for each month:

October: -1F on October 31 1991
November: -21F on November 30 2006
December: -39F on December 23 1990
January: -44F on January 18 1984 (older weather stations at this locations have gotten colder than this before 1982).
February: -51F on February 6 1989
March: -24F on March 3 2002
April: -2F on April 1 2008

Since moving here on October 12 2004, at the house, we have recorded the following:

October: 2F on October 22 2007
November: -27F on November 30 2006
December: -33F on December 5 2013
January: -40F on January 14 2013
February: -48F on February 2 2011
March: -21F on March 3 2007
April: -5F on April 1 2008

[Scott Patterson]

I guess my prediction will be off. -7F is forecast for Friday night.

[Scott Patterson]

It was 0F this morning at the house, so I guess that is our first 0F. It was 5F downtown though, so there still hasn't been a 0 or subzero temp at the official weather station.

Anyone have the first zero predictions for their towns?

[Scott Patterson]

Although it has gotten down to 1F downtown, this morning was actually the first below zero temp there.



It was later than normal this year.