Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#21 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 19, 2016 7:44 am

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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#22 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:15 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
540 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST TUE JAN 19 2016

A rather intense but short duration snow event is in store for
late tonight and Wednesday morning. Thermal profiles from nearly
all the model guidance have trended colder. Snow appears to be the
primary precip type now. QPF from the models and WPC is in good
agreement, generally averaging around four tenths of an inch.
These values should convert to about 4 inches of snow, which is
warning criteria. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for much of
western Kentucky and far southern Illinois, which is where the
combination of highest qpf and coldest thermal profiles exist.
Along the Tennessee border, a mix of sleet should hold down totals
there. Somewhat lower qpf is indicated over southeast MO,
southwest IN, and parts of southern IL, where advisory level
amounts appear more likely. There will probably be some
adjustments to qpf or precip type with the 12z model runs, which
the day shift can incorporate.

Today will be cold and quiet as high pressure slowly shifts
eastward. Extensive mid and high cloudiness will keep temps from
rising out of the 20s.

Light snow should develop as far southeast as the Ohio River this
evening, then intensify and spread across western Kentucky after
midnight. The snow should readily stick to paved surfaces due to
the recent cold weather. There will likely be a burst of moderate
to heavy snow lasting several hours late tonight. This snow will
be associated with strong isentropic ascent/warm advection, which
is indicated by 850 mb temp and wind fields. The models end the
accumulating snow rather abruptly early Wednesday as the 850 mb
flow veers into the west and weakens.

Typically the precip is not all snow in strong warm advection
scenarios. In this case, cooling associated with the intensity of
the precip and upward vertical motion (dynamic cooling) is
forecast to overcome any warming from advection. Will keep a
mention of sleet in the forecast, especially along the southern
border counties, but freezing rain no longer appears likely.

The combination of snow cover, clouds, and light north winds will
keep temps nearly steady around 30 degrees on Wednesday. Although
most of the accumulating snow will end early in the morning, some
residual light precip may linger through midday.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#23 Postby tolakram » Tue Jan 19, 2016 2:03 pm

We might get a dusting, and another dusting later in the week. Typical el nino year IMO, storms miss my area to the south.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#24 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 19, 2016 2:20 pm

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1219 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016


1219 PM CST TUE JAN 19 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. SLEET WILL BE MIXED WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES...
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IN SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY
CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

* HEAVIEST SNOW CHANCE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW
TO PRODUCE A 6 TO 8 INCH SWATH...MOST LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE OHIO RIVER AND THE TENNESSEE BORDER ACROSS WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND EXTENDING INTO AND ACROSS ADJACENT PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

* LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL SLIGHTLY
LESS WILL OCCUR...LIKE A 2 TO 3 INCH SWATH...MOST LIKELY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR FROM MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

* TIMING... SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OZARKS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
AND BORDERING MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOCALES OF SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. THE SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
THREATENING SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY...BY
MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...EVERYONE WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...AND COULD MIX WITH SLEET...
ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH.

THE SNOW WILL STILL BE GOING PRETTY GOOD AROUND DAYBREAK INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE AREA OF
WESTERN KENTUCKY...BUT WILL BE GENERALLY TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING HOURS...
ENDING BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT... THE SNOW WILL READILY STICK TO PAVED SURFACES...
CAUSING A RAPID DETERIORATION OF TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS. TRAVEL WILL BE
DIFFICULT AND IS DISCOURAGED.

* OTHER IMPACTS... VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES DURING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF THERE IS ANY FREEZING RAIN...IT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO LOCALES CLOSER TO THE
TENNESSEE BORDER...NOT GENERALLY AFFECTING OVERALL SNOW AND
SLEET ACCUMULATIVE TOTALS.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#25 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 19, 2016 6:19 pm

Thursday
A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then a chance of snow and freezing rain between 9am and noon, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 35. East northeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night
Snow. Low around 28. North northeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.


Don't need that. :double: :froze:
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#26 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Jan 20, 2016 3:45 am

Yeah, today's little snow event will be interesting...but the Thursday night-Saturday time-frame is the kicker for here in central/east KY! Could see 12-18 inches of snow, or only 4-6 inches with a lot of sleet/freezing rain. I feel sorry for the forecasters who have to try to put out some kind of forecast today into tonight...
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#27 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:05 am

From the post above:

ACCUMULATIONS...AN AVERAGE OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA.


I haven't been out to measure yet, but from what I can see we barely got an inch, maybe two. If I'm reading the hourly reports right, the WFO is showing .13 inches total over the last 6 hours.

Sounds like a bust to me.

More concerned about this:

Thursday
A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before noon, then a chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 35. East northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night
Rain, snow, and freezing rain likely before midnight, then snow and freezing rain. Low around 27. Blustery, with a northeast wind 11 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.



....
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#28 Postby tolakram » Wed Jan 20, 2016 10:07 am

We have almost 3 inches and the roads are a disaster. Waiting until lunch to drive north into work. 60 minutes just to get to the Ohio River and supposedly Ohio roads are worse.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#29 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Jan 20, 2016 8:05 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
551 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 551 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016

Models show a low pressure system over northeast Louisiana at 00z
Friday, moving over northern Alabama/northwest Georgia by 18z
Friday. Both GFS and ECMWF have precipitation just skimming our
southern counties on Thursday, where we could see a little wintry
mix Thursday morning, and light rain Thursday afternoon. A mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow will spread northeast across
Kentucky and adjacent areas of southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois and southwest Indiana Thursday evening. Temperatures will
be below freezing area wide by mid evening, and any precipitation
that falls will quickly accumulate on area roads.

A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday evening for all of west Kentucky and New Madrid and
Mississippi counties of southeast Missouri. Areas adjacent to the
watch will only see light accumulations of mainly snow, and far
western and northern portions of the PAH forecast area may see no
precipitation at all.

The wintry mix will change over to snow after midnight across all
but the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky. The Pennyrile will see
a change over to all snow early Friday morning. Snow will
continue much of Friday, tapering off from west to east late
Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Locations in the watch will
see light ice accumulations and 1 to 3 inches of potential snow,
except for the Pennyrile region which could see a tenth or two of
ice accumulation followed by 2 to 4 inches of snow. Some light
snow may linger in west Kentucky after midnight, but any
additional accumulations should be very minor.

Models have gradually been trending a little farther south with
the track of the low, so the current watch reflects the effects of
the latest track. We will have to watch the next few model runs to
see if this trend continues.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#30 Postby tolakram » Thu Jan 21, 2016 7:36 am

I don't think you're going to dodge this one, looks like a heavy snow producer. Our area is forecast to get 3 to 5 inches but I really think it's going south of us and we'll end up with just an inch or so.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#31 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:53 am

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
442 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO
MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

KYZ001>013-015>017-019>022-MOZ112-114-212100-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0002.160122T0000Z-160123T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0002.160122T0000Z-160123T0600Z/
FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-LIVINGSTON-
MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-
CHRISTIAN-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-MUHLENBERG-TODD-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKMAN...CLINTON...BARDWELL...
WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITHLAND...BENTON...MURRAY...
MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON...DIXON...MADISONVILLE...
HOPKINSVILLE...OWENSBORO...CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...
CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
442 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
CST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES MOST OF WEST KENTUCKY... AND NEW MADRID AND
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* TIMING: A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...AND POSSIBLY SOME
SLEET...WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST KENTUCKY PARKWAY. 4 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LAKES IN WEST KENTUCKY.

* OTHER IMPACTS: TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION WILL QUICKLY BECOME
DANGEROUS WITH THE ONSET OF THE FREEZING RAIN. ONCE THE SNOW
BEGINS...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW WHICH WILL ONLY MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS WORSE.
THE STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WHERE
THE GREATEST ICING OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#32 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:04 pm

Just waiting now to see if it's a Hit or a Miss.


Any thoughts on February yet?
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#33 Postby tolakram » Thu Jan 21, 2016 5:56 pm

...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...

KYZ089>093-OHZ073-074-078-080-220400-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0001.160122T1400Z-160123T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KILN.WS.W.0001.160122T1800Z-160123T1200Z/
CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-ROSS-HOCKING-CLERMONT-
HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...VEVAY...WARSAW...
FLORENCE...BURLINGTON...OAKBROOK...COVINGTON...ERLANGER...
INDEPENDENCE...NEWPORT...FORT THOMAS...ALEXANDRIA...
HIGHLAND HEIGHTS...BELLEVUE...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...MILFORD...
SUMMERSIDE...MOUNT CARMEL...MOUNT REPOSE...WITHAMSVILLE...
MULBERRY...DAY HEIGHTS...HILLSBORO...GREENFIELD
300 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

* WINDS...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF INFORMATION FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ILN AS WELL AS ON OUR FACEBOOK AND TWITTER PAGES.

&&

$$
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#34 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Jan 28, 2016 10:46 pm

I don't know what's coming the 3rd or 4th, but I hope it isn't ice.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#35 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:07 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:I don't know what's coming the 3rd or 4th, but I hope it isn't ice.

looks like the first and the second system right after will be rain for this area, it's the potential system about a week after that we would have to watch.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#36 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:08 am

got some light snow accumulations on the dirt here, thought it would be too warm for it but guess not.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#37 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Jan 29, 2016 8:18 am

Tuesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 61. South southeast wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 40. West northwest wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.


This is why I don't trust forecasts beyond three days. Yesterday they were showing next Wednesday to be in the low 30s, now they're moderating that.

Friday is the day that needs to be calm. I have plans for that day and I needs the roads dry.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#38 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 08, 2016 12:00 am

The next 8-10 days could be pretty interesting here.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#39 Postby tolakram » Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:57 am

TheProfessor wrote:The next 8-10 days could be pretty interesting here.


The Euro total accumulated snowfall maps have the CIncy area right around 5" by February 14th. The Euro parallel has us at only 3 inches. Hmmm :)
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#40 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:01 pm

Huge flakes falling on Campus right now.
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