Tropical Wave and LL Spin east of Windwards

[Dean4Storms]

I zoomed in and sped up the TW near 40W and happened to notice a small but distinct LL circulation near 40W 10N and a burst of convection just past sunset and ongoing right over the center of that small circulation.
Looks like it is moving just north of due west....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-vis.html

[Dean4Storms]

I wasn't going to point it out as there is no model support, but then I remember a couple years ago another very small circulation that became a TC and all the models missed it and the overall reasoning was the fact that it was so small. Forget the name that storm attained and the exact year.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I noticed it as well earlier but no model support probably means it has very little chance in the way of developing into a TC. Still impressive given the dry air it is traversing.

[Steve H.]

I never understand the absolute need on model support. During the past 35 years I have seen TCs develop with no model support, particularly when they are on dying fronts, I'm not saying that this will necessarily develop, but the reliance on models isn't the final word. They don't sniff out everything.

[Hammy]

Seems to be a decent spin, almost closed even.

[RL3AO]

^^^

Looks like a low has developed on the ITCZ. Lets watch over next couple days because the ITCZ dives SW towards South America. If it detaches, it'll probably lose its source of convergence and the convection will die off.

[Dean4Storms]

Boom and the convection is gone. Can still make a weak rotation but you have to speed up the motion to really see it.

[tolakram]

I never understand the absolute need on model support. During the past 35 years I have seen TCs develop with no model support, particularly when they are on dying fronts, I'm not saying that this will necessarily develop, but the reliance on models isn't the final word. They don't sniff out everything.

I would say because over the last 35 years it has happened less and less as model resolutions have improved. I think it's fun following these waves, that's what the forum is all about.

[wxman57]

I never understand the absolute need on model support. During the past 35 years I have seen TCs develop with no model support, particularly when they are on dying fronts, I'm not saying that this will necessarily develop, but the reliance on models isn't the final word. They don't sniff out everything.

Models can be a good indicator of whether or not the environment around the disturbance is favorable for development. No model support indicates that the environment around of and ahead of the disturbance is hostile toward development - as is the case with this wave. While I do think it has a good chance of development, that development won't likely occur until it moves into the East Pac in 8-10 days.

[Gustywind]

A 1013 low pressure has formed...

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
122 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2016

A tropical wave is moving across the central Tropical Atlantic
with axis from 17N42W to a 1013 mb low near 11N42W, moving W near
15 kt over the past 24 hours. The wave position was based on a
700 mb inverted trough depicted in the global models. A surge of
moisture follows this wave as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable
Water imagery. Isolated convection prevails across the low center.
The lack of deep convection is associated to the abundant Saharan
dust in the environment of this wave.

[RL3AO]

ASCAT pass picked up the low yesterday. Even if the wave enters the caribbean, it won't be in a favorable environment to maintain convection and the low. It might just plow into S. America anyway.

[tropicwatch]

Looking at sat this afternoon it appears that it might miss SA.

[abajan]

No mention of it in the 8 PM TWO but it's beginning to look kinda interesting to me.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[tropicwatch]

Nice little flare up of convection this evening.

[tropicwatch]

Nice little flare up of convection this evening.

[chaser1]

(tongue in cheek) ... meanwhile, all major news networks continue to cover this unfolding development:

Tropical Wave threatening to develop further. An Atlantic Tropical Wave continues to be tracked this evening as it continues its perilous westward motion at approx. 15 mph. Uncomfirmed reports indicate that a 1013 mb. low associated with this wave, may well have established the worlds smallest CDO. Drunken pirates in the area have supposedly reported their skull and crossbones flag... moved. Hurricane forecasters at the National Hurricane Center were unable to be reached for comment, however an unnamed source requesting to remain anonymous DID indicate "it's a tropical wave". Elsewhere, two additional anonymous posters associated with Storm2k indicated the appearant CDO might have just thrown an arc cloud, however a third Storm2k member indicated the arc cloud might well have simply been exhaust from a passing cruise ship stack and observation and analysis will continue until this potential threat no longer remains.

All of us here at FOX News will continue to bring you the very latest regarding unfolding events associated with this potential threat. Stay tuned late tonight, as we continue to wait for any White House reaction along with Wolf Blitzer at 3:00 a.m., as he attempts to wake both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump for their opposing perspectives on this development.

[chaser1]

Just a little bit of tropical levety during one of July's dusty days

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2016



...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic extends along 44W/45W
from 8N-17N with a weak 1013 mb low along the wave near 11N, all
moving west near 10 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides
with a 700 mb trough south of 15N as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within a surge of moisture as seen on the
SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N-12N between 44W-47W.

[RL3AO]

Naked swirl now as the low/wave has disconnected from the ITCZ. It might keep some isolated convection going, but it probably has lost its primary source of convergence now (ITCZ).

[chaser1]

C'mon little buddy, we're rooting for ya lol. Looks like that massive easterly surge is really pushing it along but wonder if it'll just catch up and in an instance simply absorb our little friend. On the other hand, the worlds smallest CDO looks to be bursting again (okay, bursting might just be a bit of an overstatement here) and something this small, might just be able to maintain a very quick forward motion while maintaining some very very small core of vertical integrity.

Does anyone remember if anything quite "this small" has ever formed and been tagged as a T.S.? I don't know what might better define this structurally if it were to develop - a really really small T.S. or a very very big Waterspout?