WPAC: INVEST 91W

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 161009 0600 11.5N 149.5E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5N
149.5E,APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN, AFB, GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
RUNNING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS MODERATE OUTFLOW AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. OVERALL A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KNOTS). MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

NWS

The circulation to our SE will need to be
watched, and convergent southwest winds that are along and south
of 10N could lift closer to Guam. However, models generally show
little development in the circulation between Guam and Chuuk. In
the longer term, models are a little more congruent today in
showing increased cloudiness and unsettled weather at times across
the area later in the week, especially by Thursday. ECMWF remains
more aggressive than NavGem and GFS by showing a circulation
forming within Chuuk and Pohnpei States around midweek, passing
between Yap and Guam by late week. NavGem and GFS maintain a
surface trough however. Models all agree on increasing moisture
though.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE OUTFLOW AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
OVERALL A GOOD ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE DRIFTING
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR
CYCLOGENESIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[ManilaTC]

Models are now somewhat hinting this system to cross the Philippines midweek.

[1900hurricane]

I don't think it's 91W that guidance is picking up on, but rather a seperate area along the monsoon trough currently in the Philippine Sea.

[dexterlabio]

The land threat is that area of flaring convection near 135E, I suppose.

[euro6208]

91W INVEST 161010 1800 16.5N 149.5E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
149.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.