NIO: KYANT - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

It's that time of year where the Northern Indian Ocean Basin opens back up for tropical cyclone activity. Invest 99B has been tagged in the central Bay of Bengal. Guidance does appear to be picking up the system, although it doesn't appear that any one particular member makes 99B very strong. At the moment, it appears that 99B could drift to the ENE very close to if not over the Irrawaddy Delta of Myanmar/Burma before reversing course with a turn to the WNW.

99B INVEST
As of 18:00 UTC Oct 20, 2016:

Location: 14.1°N 90.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the invest already has an exposed surface circulation hanging out a little east of the deep convection.

On an unrelated note, good gosh, what is up with all the smog over the Indian Subcontinent?!

[1900hurricane]

TXIO26 KNES 210308
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99B)

B. 21/0230Z

C. 13.3N

D. 89.1E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF
2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...WHISNANT

[1900hurricane]

Convection, while displaced from the center, is extremely cold.

[1900hurricane]

Even with the center displaced from the convection, microwave data suggests that 99B may be worthy of being classified as a tropical depression.

[1900hurricane]

[wxmann_91]

0Z GFS stronger (probably due to depiction of less easterly shear). Could end up being a fairly compact cyclone in the northern Bay of Bengal next week.

P.S. that is a lot of smog, never seen anything like that on such a large scale. Would not be surprised to find a large area of subsidence over the Indian subcontinent.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, the dry air seen on the microwave image is indicative of a subsident airmass.

JTWC is mentioning 99B, giving it a medium chance for development in the next 24 hours.

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZOCT2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 89.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 395
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, BURMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 201212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
INDICATES AN AREA OF INCREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND 10-15 KTS OF
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPERIMPOSED OVER THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS
PREDICT STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL
SIGNATURE AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

In the meantime though, 99B continues to struggle with easterly shear.

[1900hurricane]

I don't think JTWC does advisories on tropical depressions in the NIO, but the last couple ASCAT passes have shown a closed 30 kt circulation.

[Alyono]

EC has a 977mb cyclone striking central Bangladesh (it may be lower, but since I'm still on vacation, I'm not vpning into the office to get the high res data)

[jaguarjace]

[mrbagyo]

yikes

[1900hurricane]

TXIO26 KNES 222101
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (99B)

B. 22/2030Z

C. 15.4N

D. 92.1E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC)
WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW FOR A DT. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 3.0. FT BASED ON
MET. THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND THE SYSTEM IS TRANSITIONING TO A CENTRAL
COLD COVER PATTERN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK

[1900hurricane]

Could not tell you why there isn't a TCFA up yet. This could very well be a 35 kt tropical storm already.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/imag ... indian.pdf

[Alyono]

sheared apart

[1900hurricane]

Something about this ECMWF run makes me suspicious...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Bulletin No.: 15 (BOB 03/2016)
Time of issue: 0230 hours IST
Dated: 24.10.2016

Sub: Deep Depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal
The deep depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved north-northeastwards with speed
of 10 kmph during past six hours and lay centred at 2330 hrs IST of 23 rd October, 2016 over
eastcentral Bay of Bengal, near Latitude 16.0o N and Longitude 93.2o E, about 480 km north of Port
Blair and 320 km west-southwest of Yangon. The system is most likely to intensify into a cyclonic
storm during next 24 hours. It will move north-northeastwards/northwards for some time and then
recurve initially north-northwestwards and then northwestwards. It is very likely to reach northwest
Bay of Bengal in the morning of 27 th . October, 2016
Further update on movement & forecast track of the system towards India coast will be
provided after the re-curvature of the system.
Forecast track and intensity of the system are given in the table below:

[1900hurricane]

A little bit of convection has refired near the center, but east-northeasterly shear still rules the system.