WPAC: INVEST 90W

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 161205 1200 4.7N 139.1E WPAC 15 1010



Southeast of Palau.

[euro6208]

GFS makes this very strong. I'd be shocked if this were to happen. 898mb at peak with Yap and Palau in the crossfire.





EURO doesn't develop this yet.

[wxman57]

GFS develops something that is currently well east of 90W, out near 153E. Can see the rotation there on the TPW loop. It's all alone in this development forecast.

[euro6208]

GFS brings it over Yap as a 995mb TS and peaks it at 916mb. Weaker but still a possible Cat 5.

[euro6208]

NWS sides with EURO.

GFS, and to a lesser extent ECMWF, have been hinting at a
circulation developing south of 10N late this week and into the
coming weekend. This will have no direct effect on the Marianas
even if it did develop. GFS forms it further north than ECMWF
does. Wind-flow convergence north of the circulation will generate
areas of showers. If GFS is correct, and the circulation does
form, than scattered showers would be possible Sunday through next
Wednesday. If ECMWF is correct than the Marianas would remain dry
as the rain would stay too far south. It is too early to add to
the forecast and because of the uncertainty is not even considered
in the extended forecast.

A near-equatorial trough and disturbance centered near 3N140E will
keep unsettled weather across Yap and Koror. Showers the next
several days will be scattered at times as the disturbance moves
northwestward. GFS and ECMWF show two completely different scenarios
with GFS depicting a tropical cyclone developing. This is in stark
contrast to the ECMWF which shows the near-equatorial trough well
south of Koror. For now, have not made much change in the long-term
forecast. ECMWF has had a better track record on handling these
disturbances versus the, sometimes, more-aggressive GFS.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS had a Luzon landfall.

Now latest 06Z has a stronger Yap landfall, 975mb, on the 11th. Peaks it at 922mb as it recurves.

[euro6208]

90W INVEST 161206 0600 4.1N 137.9E WPAC 15 1010

[wxman57]

I still don't see the GFS developing anything near 137E, the location of Invest 90W. The system it's developing is currently passing 150E, which is NOT Invest 90W.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I still don't see the GFS developing anything near 137E, the location of Invest 90W. The system it's developing is currently passing 150E, which is NOT Invest 90W.

This is the system expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal.

[mrbagyo]

This is the system expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal.

there is already an existing depression in BOB which formed from 99W

[dexterlabio]

Fewer GFS ensemble members are showing something to develop from this area. GFS has been showing an intense typhoon for the past two weeks after Tokage, but it has also consistently backed off with that scenario as the days passed by. I just don't know what is happening with this model. For now I'll be leaning on the ECMWF solution.

[euro6208]

Just like that. GFS drops it although it has something going through the Philippines but that could be another system. It's pretty weak too.

[euro6208]

NWS

A broad disturbance centered near 5N139E will continue to cause
showers and thunderstorms near of Yap and Koror the next few days.
GFS remains the more aggressive model in depicting a better-
developed circulation, but now keeps it south then west of Yap,
closer to Koror. Both Yap and Koror will see unsettled weather for
the next several days with a low-confidence forecast for the long
term.

[euro6208]

Gone from ATCR.