WPAC: Tropical Storm GUCHOL

[mrbagyo]

In the Philippine Sea - 15.0N 135.0E
No floaters yets

[mrbagyo]

JMA @ 48hrs

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

I think this would really develop into Guchol as CMC, NAVGEM and JMA had modeled before... This might take it to Taiwan, not South China area once again...

[euro6208]

JTWC has it at LOW.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.4N 134.5E, APPROXIMATELY 785 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER IT. A 030547Z SSMIS 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING
TO FORM. THE DISTURBANCE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-32 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT SHOWING DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 16N 131E WEST 10 KT.

[mrbagyo]

WTPN21 PGTW 040530 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4N 130.1E TO 19.4N 122.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 128.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 28 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 128.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CONVECTION MOSTLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 040104Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING DIRECTLY INTO THE LLCC AND LOW LEVEL BANDING CLEARLY VISIBLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STORM CURRENTLY IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT ARE MIXED AS TO WHETHER IT WILL RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LATER TAUS. MODELS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050530Z.// NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN13 PGTW 040607

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (E OF LUZON)

B. 04/0600Z

C. 16.01N

D. 127.49E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .15 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/0104Z 16.48N 128.82E MMHS


LEMBKE


TXPQ23 KNES 040536
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 04/0230Z

C. 16.2N

D. 127.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS GREATER THAN .2 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING
A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[doomhaMwx]

PAGASA is now calling this Tropical Depression "KIKO"... Only little strengthening as it moves towards/through extreme Northern Luzon or the Luzon Strait within the next 48hrs due to shear and land interaction... It appears that the system will encounter even more unfavorable shear once it is over the Luzon Strait or South China Sea, which will cause weakening or possibly even dissipation...

[doomhaMwx]

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will affect parts of extreme Northern Luzon, including Batanes, during the next couple of days...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
261 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 041806Z SSMI 85 GHZ PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS THE LOWER LEVEL
BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE LEADING INTO A CONVECTIVE CELL
THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH THE ESTIMATED LLCC POSITION IN IR. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON BOTH THE IR AND SSMI IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, ROUNDED
UP FROM PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK T1.5 (25 KNOTS) ESTIMATES BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELEOPMENT, WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VWS OFFSETTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, 30 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE LLCC. TD 19W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON FORECAST INTENSITY. THE
EUROPEAN MODELS LARGELY TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN, WHILE THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE BUILDS A 35-45 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT MORE CLOSELY
TRACKS WITH THE MID-LEVEL STR. HWRF IS THE MOST INTENSE, AND IS
THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER. EVEN IN THE WEAKER GUIDANCE, THE STR OVER
EASTERN CHINA IS MAINTAINED OR EVEN BUILDS, SO A NORTHWARD TRACK IS
COUNTER-INDICATED. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
GEFS MEAN, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THESE
SOLUTIONS. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS
AFTER ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 36, A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING TREND OVER WATER. TD 19W WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. DUE TO THE BI-FURCATION IN
TRACK SOLUTIONS AND INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST
WARNING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
261 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 041806Z SSMI 85 GHZ PARTIAL PASS DEPICTS THE LOWER LEVEL
BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE LEADING INTO A CONVECTIVE CELL
THAT IS COINCIDENT WITH THE ESTIMATED LLCC POSITION IN IR. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON BOTH THE IR AND SSMI IMAGERY WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, ROUNDED
UP FROM PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK T1.5 (25 KNOTS) ESTIMATES BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT OF TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELEOPMENT, WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VWS OFFSETTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
HOWEVER, 30 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HELPING TO
MAINTAIN THE LLCC. TD 19W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 19W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON FORECAST INTENSITY. THE
EUROPEAN MODELS LARGELY TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL INTO TAIWAN, WHILE THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE BUILDS A 35-45 KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT MORE CLOSELY
TRACKS WITH THE MID-LEVEL STR. HWRF IS THE MOST INTENSE, AND IS
THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER. EVEN IN THE WEAKER GUIDANCE, THE STR OVER
EASTERN CHINA IS MAINTAINED OR EVEN BUILDS, SO A NORTHWARD TRACK IS
COUNTER-INDICATED. THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
GEFS MEAN, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO THESE
SOLUTIONS. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS
AFTER ENTERING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AFTER TAU 36, A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY VWS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING TREND OVER WATER. TD 19W WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. DUE TO THE BI-FURCATION IN
TRACK SOLUTIONS AND INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST
WARNING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

So 92W might finally make a run for Guchol. What's is wrong with you, Euro???

[euro6208]

Exposed.

[HURAKAN]

JTWC has issued the final advisory!!

[HURAKAN]

Talk about wind shear!

[doomhaMwx]

Second and final warning by JTWC... Lol, that was quick!

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.6N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 19.8N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 124.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). SHIPS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CYCLE INDICATED VWS WOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR 24-36 HOURS
AND SUGGESTED 19W WOULD CROSS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE SHEAR
FURTHER INCREASED TO UNSUPPORTABLE LEVELS. HOWEVER, CIMSS VWS
ESTIMATES HAVE NOW INCREASED TO 25-30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
EXPOSED LLCC, AND IS MOVING OFF NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MID-LAYER
FLOW, WHILE THE LLCC IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE WEAK
SURFACE FLOW. THE SHORTENED FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED ALONG THE RIGHT-
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, NEAR THE SHALLOW BAROTROPIC MODEL
(SBAM) SOLUTION, TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LOW LEVEL STEERING FLOW.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER WEAKEN BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF STRONG VWS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 050000Z IS 8 FEET.
//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

JMA still expecting a Tropical Storm from this one huh...
If the shear does not abate, then it will most likely dissipate near/over the Luzon Strait...

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

It seems to remind me of Roke, which was a very weak storm. Oh, for someone who want to know this, it appeared that 19W survived alot of shear.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

Now named Guchol by JMA.