ATL: KATIA - Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2017090500, , BEST, 0, 217N, 962W, 25, 1010, DB

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this BOC disturbance.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119112

8 PM TWO:

A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing disorganized showers activity and gusty winds.
Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for slow
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
during the next couple of days while it meanders over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder - could this play a role in the ultimate evolution of Irma, either by opening a path west, or by extending the trough's reach to amplify a turn?

[tailgater]

Pressure dropping pretty quickly.
https://ibb.co/fvXXbv

[Blinhart]

REally think if this does form, it will draw Irma further West.

[jabman98]

Glad to see an invest, finally. Feel like I've been watching the area for a few days.

REally think if this does form, it will draw Irma further West.

That is not something I even want to consider. Ugh.

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder - could this play a role in the ultimate evolution of Irma, either by opening a path west, or by extending the trough's reach to amplify a turn?

A turn would away from the Gulf of Mexico would be much better.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

. A trough of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while it meanders over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains associated with this
disturbance are likely over portions of eastern Mexico during the
remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[lovingseason2013]

Have any models picked up on this yet, so as we might know where it could be headed? Or is it going into Mexico already?

[MGC]

A lot of convection is building down in the BOC this morning. Looks like 95L is slowly organizing.....MGC

[Portastorm]

First blush:

[Stormcenter]

More like rapidly organizing.

A lot of convection is building down in the BOC this morning. Looks like 95L is slowly organizing.....MGC

[Hurricaneman]

More like rapidly organizing.

A lot of convection is building down in the BOC this morning. Looks like 95L is slowly organizing.....MGC

I have a feeling we will have Katia sometime tomorrow and this may be a piece of the Irma puzzle in terms of track

[Portastorm]

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 70%/80%

A well-defined area of low pressure has formed about 50 miles east
of Tampico, Mexico in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in
association with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the
next couple of days while it meanders over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains associated with this
disturbance are likely over portions of eastern Mexico during the
remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[HurricaneA]

Since 95L has a high chance of developing, will the NHC start initiating advisories for PTC 13 at the 5 PM update?

[KWT]

Katia will literally have 0 impact on Irma sadly, they are being guided by two totally different steering currents.

Anyway, 95L is looking decent and I strongly suspect it will beocme Katia sooner rather than later, especially as this part of the basin has been a hot spot recent years.

[smw1981]

Quick question.. Why do some models have this disturbance heading north towards the central gulf coast and other models have it going west into Mexico? (And other models don't show it at all..)

[Portastorm]

Quick question.. Why do some models have this disturbance heading north towards the central gulf coast and other models have it going west into Mexico? (And other models don't show it at all..)

I have not seen one model showing a track north towards the central Gulf coast outside of one solitary Navgem run from 12z. Which models are you talking about?

[Portastorm]

[galaxy401]

And yet another one!

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

...DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 96.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES