2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3058
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2201 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:39 pm

Abdullah wrote:
SootyTern wrote:Where did you get that graphic of the NAM? I like it but I don't like what it is showing. That cool air.....so close but so far......

At first, it looks like its getting closer, then the day comes and pushes back about 90% of what has been achieved throughout the night.(exaggeration)


It took a while to get that. First, I downloaded the gif from tropicaltidbits.com (NAM 3 KM)
I then realized it was 5 megabytes too bigfor tinypic.com, and not wanting to have to make an account, I went to ezgif to compress it. It brought me 1 megabyte over the limit, which is 5 megabytes.) So I cropped it. Problem solved!It actually took like 20 minutes to do.
The NAM isn't the best but it's pretty good with temperatures, right?


Other issue with the NAM is that it only goes out to 84 hours I believe.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 840
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2202 Postby N2FSU » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:50 am

After dropping development yesterday, GFS, FV3 and Euro are all back to showing a weak low developing in Gulf (frontal?) and moving in the general direction of the Florida Panhandle or Big Bend.

FV3 posted below

Image
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Abdullah
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:28 pm
Location: Broward County, FL, Earth

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2203 Postby Abdullah » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:54 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Abdullah wrote:
SootyTern wrote:Where did you get that graphic of the NAM? I like it but I don't like what it is showing. That cool air.....so close but so far......

At first, it looks like its getting closer, then the day comes and pushes back about 90% of what has been achieved throughout the night.(exaggeration)


It took a while to get that. First, I downloaded the gif from tropicaltidbits.com (NAM 3 KM)
I then realized it was 5 megabytes too bigfor tinypic.com, and not wanting to have to make an account, I went to ezgif to compress it. It brought me 1 megabyte over the limit, which is 5 megabytes.) So I cropped it. Problem solved!It actually took like 20 minutes to do.
The NAM isn't the best but it's pretty good with temperatures, right?


Other issue with the NAM is that it only goes out to 84 hours I believe.

I believe that's because it's meant for average, accurate forecasts, right? It has 1 hour intervals!
1 likes   
Thank you for reading my (probably uninformed and ignorant) comment or post.
Have a nice day.

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3928
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2204 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:40 am

This morning's GFS loop shows 3 cold fronts passing through Florida:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 506&fh=360
2 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5898
Age: 55
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2205 Postby boca » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:57 am

Frank2 wrote:This morning's GFS loop shows 3 cold fronts passing through Florida:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 506&fh=360


I sure hope it’s right,we need the rain too.
0 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5699
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2206 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:59 am

Frank2 wrote:This morning's GFS loop shows 3 cold fronts passing through Florida:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 506&fh=360


at this point, we will take one and claim victory, its always difficult getting the first one through, last week it was hung up around orlando, this one looks more promising


LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

FLORIDA'S ATTEMPT FOR FALL WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE HINTED AT BY
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH DIPS DOWN ACROSS THE STATE.
5 likes   

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3928
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2207 Postby Frank2 » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:23 pm

Yipes - if that becomes reality Winter is here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 812&fh=360
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6067
Age: 25
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2208 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:26 pm

Yep season is likely over for the continental U.S. now. Can’t still be so sure about parts of the Western Caribbean just yet.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
Abdullah
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:28 pm
Location: Broward County, FL, Earth

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2209 Postby Abdullah » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:28 pm

We're going to shift from Rainy Season(Very Hot and Wet) to Dry Season(Hot and Dry.)

Or we're going to switch from Hotter Season to Hot Season. There is no winter here... Just varying degrees of summer.
2 likes   
Thank you for reading my (probably uninformed and ignorant) comment or post.
Have a nice day.

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5898
Age: 55
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2210 Postby boca » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:42 pm

Abdullah wrote:We're going to shift from Rainy Season(Very Hot and Wet) to Dry Season(Hot and Dry.)

Or we're going to switch from Hotter Season to Hot Season. There is no winter here... Just varying degrees of summer.


True, and it’s hard to get below 60 in the winter as low temperatures at night
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5178
Age: 26
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Plantation/Sunrise, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2211 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:52 am

Several models trying to develop a system off an approaching front next week. All at 192 hours:

GFS has a closed hot mess heading to West Central Florida
FV3 has something spinning off the coast of the Carolinas
ECMWF has what would likely be a subtropical or extratropical low battering the NE coastline but staying offshore
CMC takes a weak closed low across the Panhandle at 174, and by 192 is inline with the FV3
1 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
johngaltfla
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1711
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Sarasota County, FL
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2212 Postby johngaltfla » Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:58 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Several models trying to develop a system off an approaching front next week. All at 192 hours:

GFS has a closed hot mess heading to West Central Florida
FV3 has something spinning off the coast of the Carolinas
ECMWF has what would likely be a subtropical or extratropical low battering the NE coastline but staying offshore
CMC takes a weak closed low across the Panhandle at 174, and by 192 is inline with the FV3


Based on the current modeling and local forecasts, if the GFS verifies, that hot mess will be a major cold front dropping GOM temps below 82F after the thunderstorms pass through, which is the start of the end for the GOM season. I hope they are correct because lows of 53F will diminish water temps significantly.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7415
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2213 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:47 am

The latest 00Z GFS is showing a series of.Low Pressure areas developing with the subtropical jet during next week. For me, of particular very special interest, 00ZGFS is showing a stronger baroclinic Low around 1006 mb forming along a frontal boundary off the Texas coast. It then moves east, along in which it strengthens to 1000mb along the Gulf Coast and then across North Florida in 198 hours.

This has the potential to really be a heavy rain and severe weather story next weekend here in the area. This may not bode well for the big cocktail party here for the Florida/Georgia festivities next weekend. I will be monitoring this closely in the days to come .
1 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3928
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm
Location: Florida

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2214 Postby Frank2 » Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:10 am

Doesn't look like much in the latest model run - just a low and modest rainfall: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 506&fh=360
1 likes   

OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1509
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2215 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:16 am

Apparently, all the models are coming to an agreement. Albeit different times and strengths. There will be a nor’easter this weekend in the east. Looks like a Hatteras howler to a Manhattan mauler on the GFS and FV3. Euro is weaker but still a nor’easter. What is interesting is that most of the models have the remnants of Willa entrained into it as it traverses the Gulf. It is already mentioned in our local forecast, just waiting for a consensus on strength and overall effects. Certainly not tropical but could have some rather adverse effects here on the east coast as well as snow in the Appalachians from West Virginia and north. .
1 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3058
Age: 58
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2216 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:36 am

OuterBanker wrote:Apparently, all the models are coming to an agreement. Albeit different times and strengths. There will be a nor’easter this weekend in the east. Looks like a Hatteras howler to a Manhattan mauler on the GFS and FV3. Euro is weaker but still a nor’easter. What is interesting is that most of the models have the remnants of Willa entrained into it as it traverses the Gulf. It is already mentioned in our local forecast, just waiting for a consensus on strength and overall effects. Certainly not tropical but could have some rather adverse effects here on the east coast as well as snow in the Appalachians from West Virginia and north. .


It is pretty wild how the core energy from this deepening low will be the remnant from Willa! Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see it bomb out even deeper then models are projecting once over the Gulf Stream somewhere east/northeast of JAX.

Beyond that however, the models don't seem to hint of anything remotely tropical trying to spin up. The Westerlies have certainly driven far to the south over the recent two weeks. I'd be leary to believe that we're going to see general troughing over the E. Conus straight through the remaining weeks of Hurricane Season. I just have that sense that upper ridging will make one last gasp to establish over the far Southwestern Caribbean; Enough that we may well see one more attempt at tropical development sometime in November down there before all is said and done.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5882
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2217 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:18 pm

I cannot believe anyone has not mentioned the FV3 18z run this evening showing a Tropical Cyclone developing at 240hr then Hurricane developing in the Western Carib. Sea. I know that's out there a bit in time but.......
3 likes   

SootyTern
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 274
Joined: Sun Sep 05, 2004 5:09 pm
Location: Homestead, FL

Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#2218 Postby SootyTern » Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:47 am

A couple days ago it showed a 958 heading to Jamaica for one run only then it disappeared. Looked like the energy was crossing over into the Pacific or getting hung up over land in the other runs. Now a decent storm is back for one run, getting pulled north out of the Caribbean. A ghost, or a sign of possible better conditions in this area in mid-November?
0 likes   
Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf Coast: Opal '95 Georges '98 / So Fla: Katrina '05 Wilma '05 Irma '17


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: crownweather, weatherwindow and 26 guests