WTIN20 DEMS 110643
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.03.2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC OF 11.03.2018 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11.03.2018.
BAY OF BENGAL:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH SRI LANKA AT 0300
UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH MARCH, 2018. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND BECOME WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HRS OVER
THE COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. IT IS ALSO
LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA
DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HRS.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:
24 HOURS
24-48 HOURS
48-72 HOURS
NIL
LOW
MODERATE
REMARKS:
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH SRILANKA, EXTREME SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN EQUATOR & LATITUDE
7.00N AND LONGITUDE 79.00E & 85.00E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29-30\U02DAC, OCEAN THERMAL
ENERGY IS ABOUT 50 KJ/CM2 OVER COMORIN AREA AND MORE THAN
100 KJ/CM2 OVER MANY PARTS OF LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE & UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE 10X10-5 S-1 & 20X10-5 S-1 RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TO
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOW PRESSURE AREA ADJACENT TO EQUATOR.
VORTICITY IS 50X10-6 S-1 OVER THE SAME REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE REGION AND LOW OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES
ALONG LATITUDE 10.00N NEAR LONG. 800E. IT IS FAVOURING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND HENCE INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE
UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INITIALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
COMORIN AREA AND EMERGE INTO LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 72 HRS. THUS, THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE FURTHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMTERS
LIKE SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER
24 HRS. HENCE, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-INITIALLY NORTHWESTWARDS & THEN NORTHWESTWARDS AND BECOME
WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HRS. IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING SUBSEQUENT
24 HRS
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER BASED ON IMD GFS MODEL SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION BY 13TH MARCH OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.
THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM
UPTO DEPRESSION/DEEP DEPRESSION TILL 13TH MARCH AND WEAKENING
TREND THEREAFTER.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 11.03.2018
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 72 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600
UTC OF 11.03.2018 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 11.03.2018.
BAY OF BENGAL:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LIES OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN AND
ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH SRI LANKA AT 0300
UTC OF TODAY, THE 11TH MARCH, 2018. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND BECOME WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HRS OVER
THE COMORIN AREA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. IT IS ALSO
LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA
DURING SUBSEQUENT 24 HRS.
PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 72 HRS:
24 HOURS
24-48 HOURS
48-72 HOURS
NIL
LOW
MODERATE
REMARKS:
ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO
VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LIE OVER SOUTH SRILANKA, EXTREME SOUTHWEST
BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING INDIAN OCEAN BETWEEN EQUATOR & LATITUDE
7.00N AND LONGITUDE 79.00E & 85.00E IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS 29-30\U02DAC, OCEAN THERMAL
ENERGY IS ABOUT 50 KJ/CM2 OVER COMORIN AREA AND MORE THAN
100 KJ/CM2 OVER MANY PARTS OF LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE & UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ARE 10X10-5 S-1 & 20X10-5 S-1 RESPECTIVELY, BOTH TO
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LOW PRESSURE AREA ADJACENT TO EQUATOR.
VORTICITY IS 50X10-6 S-1 OVER THE SAME REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE REGION AND LOW OVER LAKSHADWEEP AREA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES
ALONG LATITUDE 10.00N NEAR LONG. 800E. IT IS FAVOURING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND HENCE INCREASING THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE
UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INITIALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS
COMORIN AREA AND EMERGE INTO LAKSHADWEEP AREA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING NEXT 72 HRS. THUS, THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE FURTHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMTERS
LIKE SST, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER
24 HRS. HENCE, THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-INITIALLY NORTHWESTWARDS & THEN NORTHWESTWARDS AND BECOME
WELL MARKED DURING NEXT 48 HRS. IT IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE
INTO A DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA DURING SUBSEQUENT
24 HRS
THE GENESIS POTENTIAL PARAMETER BASED ON IMD GFS MODEL SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION BY 13TH MARCH OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN
SEA. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.
THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM
UPTO DEPRESSION/DEEP DEPRESSION TILL 13TH MARCH AND WEAKENING
TREND THEREAFTER.
