EPAC: ONE-E - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Location: 9.0°N 119.0°W
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: N/A

[hurricanes1234]

First invest of 2018!

We have a designated invest but no mention on the TWO.

[CyclonicFury]

I imagine NHC will release a STWO within the next couple of hours.

[cycloneye]

GFS has a moderate to strong Tropical Storm but ECMWF only has a Tropical Depression.Let's see the 12z run to see if EC gets stronger or not.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1045 AM PDT Mon May 7 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disturbed weather has formed a little more than
one thousand miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
marginally favorable for some development during the next day or
two while the disturbance moves generally toward the west-northwest
and northwest. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. The next
Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by
11 AM PDT Tuesday, or earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is more stronger than in past runs.

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[NotSparta]

Been a while since I've seen this badge light up.

Here we go!

[Kingarabian]

Euro now on board with TS development. Good win for the GFS this early on.



Now 90E has to develop... hopefully it's not like last season where predicted storms kept petering out.

[cycloneye]

Is not common to have formations this far west this early.

@webberweather
Invest #90E in the Northeastern Pacific has been designated by the NHC & most NWP models develop this into One-E or TS #Aletta near or west of 120W. TCs rarely, if ever form this far west so early in the NE Pac. +ENSO & a massive +PMM coupled to AGW likely explain this anomaly



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/993576582752153602

[cycloneye]

I dont think the intensity of this future TC will match what SHIP has but who knows if it gets perfect conditions briefly.

[Chris90]

I dont think the intensity of this future TC will match what SHIP has but who knows if it gets perfect conditions briefly.

I'm most in agreement with LGEM there. I'm thinking there's a decent chance it could be named Aletta, and I think it could peak at 45-50kts.
I'm just rooting for it to be declared tomorrow on the 8th. Adrian's record is the 9th, correct?

[NotSparta]

I dont think the intensity of this future TC will match what SHIP has but who knows if it gets perfect conditions briefly.

I'm most in agreement with LGEM there. I'm thinking there's a decent chance it could be named Aletta, and I think it could peak at 45-50kts.
I'm just rooting for it to be declared tomorrow on the 8th. Adrian's record is the 9th, correct?

9th at 18z. So anytime before 18z would set a record

[CyclonicFury]

GFS more bullish on this run. Has 90E down to 982 mb in 66 hours. Other models are much weaker.

[Kingarabian]

As with the any other EPAC storm, I wouldn't be surprised if it overachieves.

[cycloneye]

@pppapin
The initiation of Invest #90E was likely triggered by a convectively coupled kelvin wave propagating across the EPAC. A quick animation of @carl_schreck's eq wave graphics show how the Kelvin wave is linked to the current low-level +VP surge over the basin.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/993629523181752320

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Likely to be the first storm in a long and hyperactive season.

[plasticup]

I dont think the intensity of this future TC will match what SHIP has but who knows if it gets perfect conditions briefly.

I'm most in agreement with LGEM there. I'm thinking there's a decent chance it could be named Aletta, and I think it could peak at 45-50kts.
I'm just rooting for it to be declared tomorrow on the 8th. Adrian's record is the 9th, correct?

9th at 18z. So anytime before 18z would set a record

And anywhere west of 123 would also set a records. An auspicious start to our season.

[wxman57]

Sat pic indicates it's well on its way to becoming a TS this evening. Should be a TD or TS tomorrow. 40% development chance is a bit low, more like 95%

[StruThiO]

Insane that we're chasing the record of earliest formation set just last year.