ARABIAN SEA: SAGAR - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

As hinted by the models, Invest 91A has been designated over the southern Arabian Sea.

91A INVEST 180514 0000 8.0N 58.2E IO 15 1010

[doomhaMwx]

Global models continue to indicate the potential of some weak development, into a Tropical Depression or Storm, as the system moves towards and enters the Gulf of Aden during the next few days, and possibly affecting the nearby countries Yemen and/or Somalia.

[BYG Jacob]

How favorable are conditions around it?

[Twisted-core]

Dry air coming off the continent may hinder any further organisation of 91A.

[doomhaMwx]

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 54.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 53.2E, APPROXIMATELY 55
NM SOUTHWEST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLC, WHICH
WAS SHEARED BUT IS NOW SLIDING BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION, AND
NASCENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC AS WELL. A 160003Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER, AND LOW LEVEL BANDING IS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT THAT IS SUPPORTING DEEPER CONVECTION. 91A IS LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND
SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT 91A WILL
TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ADEN AND REMAIN OVER WATER FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER WARM WATER WITH FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MODELS PREDICT 91A WILL INTENSIFY TO A
BORDERLINE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[doomhaMwx]

Expected to track WSW/SW into the western portions of the Gulf of Aden, and potentially making landfall over Somaliland (northwestern part of Somalia), or perhaps even as west as Djibouti, in about 3 days time. This would be a very rare occurrence if it does verify.




As 91A tracks over the Gulf of Aden, heavy rainfall may impact coastal areas of Yemen, northern Somalia and parts of Djibouti on the next few days.

[euro6208]

A peak of a TS i think anything higher i'd be shock.

[Yellow Evan]

It's probably been classifiable for a while.

16/1430 UTC 13.4N 49.6E T2.0/2.0 91A -- Arabian Sea
16/0830 UTC 12.6N 50.5E T1.5/1.5 91A -- Arabian Sea

[Sciencerocks]

The jtwc has upgraded to 1a

WTIO31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 13.2N 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 12.4N 45.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 11.9N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.2N 43.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. CURRENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND DEVELOPING BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
1745Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 BASED ON CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE.
TC 01A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
AND GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. TC 01A IS
FORECAST TO TURN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT IS STEERED BY A
COMBINATION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND FLOW
FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TERRAIN. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE REMAINING STEADY UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. THE FORECAST INTENSITY DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE
TRACK AND MINOR DEVIATIONS COULD INCREASE LAND INTERACTION AND
RESULT IN MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST, BUT SMALL
DEVIATIONS IN TRACK COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY CHANGES. BASED
ON HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN


This must be extremely rare!!!

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[doomhaMwx]

Deep Depression by IMD...
Will be named "Sagar" once they upgrade it into a Cyclonic Storm.

Sub: Deep Depression over Gulf of Aden
The depression over Gulf of Aden moved westwards during past 6 hrs with a speed of 11
kmph, intensified into a deep depression and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 17th
May 2018 over Gulf of Aden near latitude 13.2N and longitude 49.0E; about 430 km east-northeast of
Aden (Yemen) and 530 km west-northwest of Socotra Islands. It is very likely to intensify further into
a cyclonic storm during next 12 hrs. It is very likely to move initially westwards during next 12 hrs
and then west-southwestwards during subsequent 24 hrs.

[Sciencerocks]

India Met. Dept.
‏ @Indiametdept

Deep depression over Gulf of Aden moved westwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm “SAGAR” at 0530 hrs IST near 13.2N & 48.7E, to move initially westwards during next 12 hrs and then west-southwestwards during subsequent 24 hrs.,,

[doomhaMwx]

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.9N 48.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 48.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.5N 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.1N 46.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 11.7N 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.2N 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 10.2N 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8N 47.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (SAGAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM EAST
OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT
HAS, AT TIMES, SHOWN A SMALL DIMPLE FEATURE. THE CENTRAL AREA OF
CONVECTION IS COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
PRESENT IN A 170913Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE RECENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW AND KNES BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INTENISTY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 49 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH AN ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF
VERY WARM (31+ CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EXTENSION
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND THE LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWING THE COASTAL TOPOGRAPHY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
CONTINUOUS INFLUENCE OF THESE STEERING FEATURES. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE
GULF OF ADEN. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 55
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, LAND INTERACTION NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC SAGAR IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48, COMPLETELY DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 72.
HOWEVER, SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITY CHANGES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED LAND
INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]

[galaxy401]

So...how prepared is Djibouti with these type of storms?

[Sciencerocks]

So...how prepared is Djibouti with these type of storms?

I don't I'd have to search hard and far to find another storm that even comes close. Must be very rare indeed...Can't be too ready.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to be becoming less organzied. It's lost its comma shape and the CDO is quite ragged.

[djones65]

There still appears to be in my opinion an inner core. But with the system located so close to the Arabian Peninsula and northern Africa with so much dry air I imagine its satellite presentation will "shrink." And become just a CDO. I still see a system center. There was an eye-like feature earlier between 8-14Z in my opinion. Now there is a convective cover. I wouldn't be surprised if it were losing organization since its moisture source has been pinched off. But maintaining cold cloud tops despite being less than 60 miles offshore is impressive to me. It's an exciting event to see a tropical cyclone in this location!