Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

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Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:37 am

To avoid confusion about the waves,I am making this thread for the wave some models hint at some type of development down the road so let's post away.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa

#2 Postby boca » Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:52 am

As long as the NAO stays negative this should recurve once it gets to Bahamas
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa

#3 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Jul 27, 2019 10:56 am

boca wrote:As long as the NAO stays negative this should recurve once it gets to Bahamas


That would depend on timing ....
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 27, 2019 2:45 pm

boca wrote:As long as the NAO stays negative this should recurve once it gets to Bahamas

Should recurve before The Bahamas.
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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa

#5 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 27, 2019 2:54 pm

:uarrow: This wave would be some 12-14 days away from the US. Who knows what the steering would be like that far out. Looks like it heads towards the NE Lesser Antilles 8 days from now. By the way it interacts with Hispaniola later in the run so that probably limits development:

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Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa

#6 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 27, 2019 7:21 pm

GFS legacy going with a strengthening storm at 240 hours:

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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 27, 2019 8:24 pm

Wave is emerging the African coast.

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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 28, 2019 5:27 am

Over Puerto Rico on day 9.

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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:45 am

Wave axis on the coast.

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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#10 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:06 am

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1155443121209167872


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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#11 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 28, 2019 7:09 am

The reason the Euro develops while the GFS doesn’t is that the GFS goes through the shear zone in the Caribbean while the Euro and GFS legacy doesn’t do that
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#12 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 28, 2019 8:50 am

EPS 15 days out..


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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#13 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jul 28, 2019 9:01 am

Fortunately, the upcoming pattern does not seem to favour landfalls, unless the prospective system were to stay south:

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1155450453825675264




Interestingly, the timing of the -NAO (through mid-August) is similar to that of the -NAO in 2004. Recall CHARLEY.
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#14 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:09 am

if we see early development in the next couple days before the easterly shear kicks up then overall genesis is much higher.

I say this because its current structure and data suggest it may try to make a run for sooner.

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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:48 am

The 12zGFS seems to be coming aboard wiling this system when it gets to the NE Lesser Antilles
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#16 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:48 pm

It already looks like it has quite a bit of spin
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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:53 pm

12z Euro:

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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#18 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 28, 2019 1:57 pm

Heading WNW when run ends with ridging over the Bahamas:

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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#19 Postby Dylan » Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:45 pm

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1155564480715038720


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Re: Tropical Wave emerging West Africa

#20 Postby Siker » Sun Jul 28, 2019 2:57 pm

At the moment, this has amazing structure. Will likely see it struggle in a few days as it gets pressed from the north by dry air.
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