SIO: BLAKE - EX - Tropical Cyclone

[Nancy Smar]

91S INVEST 200103 0000 12.0S 119.5E SHEM 15 0

[Nancy Smar]

91S INVEST 200103 0000 11.3S 110.0E SHEM 15 1010

[Nancy Smar]

A tropical low (02U) is expected to develop in a monsoon trough which lies south of Indonesia during Saturday. The system could slowly strengthen, which increases the risk of a tropical cyclone to Moderate on Monday. It could be near the west Kimberley coast on Sunday and Monday and the Pilbara coast from Tuesday, with a coastal crossing being possible. Even if it does not reach tropical cyclone intensity, strong winds and heavy rainfall are still expected near the system.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Low
Monday:Moderate

[aspen]

The GFS has been very aggressive with 91S and has it explode to 921 mbar by landfall in 120 hrs. However, the Euro and CMC only show limited development. The NAVGEM is somewhere in between.

[Nancy Smar]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 113.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY
422 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CENTER. A 032238Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW BANDING IN THE LOW LEVELS AND WELL-ORGANIZED MIDLEVEL
ROTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM
(30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
24-48 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARDS TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[WAcyclone]

The first BOM forecast for tropical low 02U predicts it reaching Category 2 strength (on the Australian scale) while making landfall in Port Hedland.

[Astromanía]

Only a ts on saffir-Simpson scale but will be the first named storm this season for this basin.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BOM_WA/status/1213342121257603072

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1213515417538433024

[Stephanie]

That will hopefully take care of bushfires in that area. Hopefully, the moisture will make its way down to the southern part of Western Australia and get those fires as well.

[Nancy Smar]

WTXS21 PGTW 050330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 121.2E TO 19.0S 120.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 121.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 120.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT AGENCIES ARE
NOW FIXING ON. A 042225Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL WITH BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AND A 050051Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS TO THE
EAST SHOWS A VERY BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS STRETCHING OVER 100NM
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. NEARBY OBSERVATIONS REPORT
WINDS FROM 25-30 KTS AND PRESSURE FALLS TO 1002MB. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A
SMALL POCKET OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY WITHIN
12-24 HOURS WHILE TRACKING POLEWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060330Z.
//
NNNN

[aspen]

Now a 35 kt tropical storm in the 18z best track update.

[aspen]

91S is producing some very deep CDG convection that entirely covers up the circulation. I can’t tell if this is a CDO or a CCC.

[CrazyC83]

All those fires would represent a lot of additional dry air? That could put a check on the intensity.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1214009589261225984

[1900hurricane]

Looks CCC again.

[WAcyclone]

Broome Port Jetty just reported 10-minute sustained winds of 42 kt with a gust to 55 kt. Pressure in the town appears to be around 993-994 hPa.

[aspen]

Looks like it made landfall. The models really blew it with this one.