ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Thread for Invest 90L is opened as recon has been tasked for Friday so post away.

[Aric Dunn]

Speak of the devil.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

I love when development happens in radar range.

[Ian2401]

Man I hope we at least get some good rainfall here in South Florida, my lawn really needs it.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the circulation that is becoming more pronounced on radar rather quickly. is at about 4500 feet.

if convection sustains itself the way it is. it wont take long for the pressure to fall at the surface.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the circulation that is becoming more pronounced on radar rather quickly. is at about 4500 feet.

if convection sustains itself the way it is. it wont take long for the pressure to fall at the surface.

Aric, can you point out we’re you think the low is developing? Thanks

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the circulation that is becoming more pronounced on radar rather quickly. is at about 4500 feet.

if convection sustains itself the way it is. it wont take long for the pressure to fall at the surface.

Aric, can you point out we’re you think the low is developing? Thanks

I think it is pretty straight forward.. also there is still shear so anything that forms at surface will likely get spit out a couple times.

but impressive nonetheless for this little guy.

[gatorcane]

The GFS has shifted a bit more west as it passes South Florida

[Evil Jeremy]

It's that time of year again. Certainly, the weather yesterday and this morning has been indicative of nearby tropical activity. The constant cool breeze, clouds look like they're in a rush to get somewhere. It's entirely overcast today, and hopefully tomorrow/Saturday we get the drenching we anticipated last weekend.

[boca]

We need 90L to move due north not NE for South Florida to get good rains otherwise it might clip us but mostly east of us.

[plasticup]

Looks like the circulation that is becoming more pronounced on radar rather quickly. is at about 4500 feet.

if convection sustains itself the way it is. it wont take long for the pressure to fall at the surface.

Do you think today is possible? Radar looks amazing but the models want another 48 hours.

[GCANE]

High helicity tower fired off with lightning.
Looking better and better.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the circulation that is becoming more pronounced on radar rather quickly. is at about 4500 feet.

if convection sustains itself the way it is. it wont take long for the pressure to fall at the surface.

Do you think today is possible? Radar looks amazing but the models want another 48 hours.

for an upgrade? probably not. NHC will wait for recon or the circ to pass close enough to surface obs.

tomorrow most likely given the current rate of things. luckily it is in radar range.

[Ian2401]

Looks like the circulation that is becoming more pronounced on radar rather quickly. is at about 4500 feet.

if convection sustains itself the way it is. it wont take long for the pressure to fall at the surface.

Do you think today is possible? Radar looks amazing but the models want another 48 hours.

I wouldn't call it "amazing" but certainly better than I thought it would at this point

[GCANE]

Looks really good on lower-level water vapor satellite.
Firing off a very distinct dry-line like something you would see in west Texas.

[GCANE]

Looks like enough CAPE and clear skies to fire off popup thunderstorms over west Cuba this afternoon.
Same old routine.
Convective debris will this evening entrain into the LL vort and moisten the mid-levels up.
Very likely early Friday morning around DMAX will see the best chance for heavy convection and a spin up later in the day.

[GCANE]

The LL vort hasn't moved at all since dawn.

[jlauderdal]

Man I hope we at least get some good rainfall here in South Florida, my lawn really needs it.

its been very difficult to make rain the last 60 days....there is a chance this one doesn't do much better as it slides to the east

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like enough CAPE and clear skies to fire off popup thunderstorms over west Cuba this afternoon.
Same old routine.
Convective debris will this evening entrain into the LL vort and moisten the mid-levels up.
Very likely early Friday morning around DMAX will see the best chance for heavy convection and a spin up later in the day.

yeah, however the pops over cuba are already being pulled ene at the 850 mb level into that convective complex. outflowvboundaries from the land convection will also push northward likely helping to close this off overnight.

[Aric Dunn]

The LL vort hasn't moved at all since dawn.

you see the doppler velocities the couplet continues to grow? .. mescoscale features slowly dropping the pressure field.