ATL: GONZALO - Remnants - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 99, 2020072012, , BEST, 0, 93N, 375W, 20, 1009, DB,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121017

[Aric Dunn]

who would have thought.. lol

darn now I have to have two tabs open...

[northjaxpro]

This is the one to really watch in the days to come!!

[Aric Dunn]

This is the one to really watch in the days to come!!

yeah for sure.

I don't think it will take that long though. by the EOD and into this evening if this minimal convection continues.... we will likely see another larger burst

and then everyone will be like

where is ASCAT where is ASCAT.. lol

[EquusStorm]

Well there's your long-awaited July MDR storm, at least making an attempt. Won't be long now...

[StPeteMike]

Definitely getting itself together. Just needs to fill up more with convection and it will start going!

[GCANE]

IMHO, this is very likely a protected pouch.

Dry air is beginning to intrude from the NW of the CoC.
Convection is firing and washing out along a dryline relatively far and west from the circulation.
New convection is refiring very close to the CoC.
Visible shows a well defined closed circulation.

GFS is forecasting a small ULL ahead of the track in about 2 days.
This will create sinking air ahead of 99L and inhibit convection.
Watching this closely on how well that plays out.
If this is a protected pouch, it could have a minimal effect.

[GCANE]

[aspen]

IMHO, this is very likely a protected pouch.

Dry air is beginning to intrude from the NW of the CoC.
Convection is firing and washing out along a dryline relatively far and west from the circulation.
New convection is refiring very close to the CoC.
Visible shows a well defined closed circulation.

GFS is forecasting a small ULL ahead of the track in about 2 days.
This will create sinking air ahead of 99L and inhibit convection.
Watching this closely on how well that plays out.
If this is a protected pouch, it could have a minimal effect.

The circulation seems elongated, and convection is still shallow. It’ll definitely need a significant burst to ever get classified as a TC.

[SFLcane]

SAL surge is gonna end it. Not much chance

[EquusStorm]

With only fair background support for development at the particular moment, it's hard to say that this wave in particular is the one that kicks off our MDR season, but it's definitely worth reiterating again and again that even hyperactive seasons rarely go nuts before mid-August so we'd still be a little ahead of climo. I'll run some more numbers on climo norms for pre-August later but yeah it would just be icing on the above-average-or-higher season cake to see a wave-spawned July storm instead of a necessity. Just needs to actually organize and better maintain its already present convection.

[toad strangler]

This wave will be well done toast. Way too much mid level dry air AND SAL. It's gonna vaporize like a drop of water on a hot frying pan. Basically, too much July out there.

[GCANE]

IMHO, this is very likely a protected pouch.

Dry air is beginning to intrude from the NW of the CoC.
Convection is firing and washing out along a dryline relatively far and west from the circulation.
New convection is refiring very close to the CoC.
Visible shows a well defined closed circulation.

GFS is forecasting a small ULL ahead of the track in about 2 days.
This will create sinking air ahead of 99L and inhibit convection.
Watching this closely on how well that plays out.
If this is a protected pouch, it could have a minimal effect.

The circulation seems elongated, and convection is still shallow. It’ll definitely need a significant burst to ever get classified as a TC.

The elongation appears to be due to it not being completely broken away from the ITCZ.
Sorry for disagreeing with Aric.

[northjaxpro]

Many were saying the very similar things like you are pointing to Toad Strangler and similar conditions like what we have with 99L now back in 2015 with Hurricane Danny in the MDR. We saw what happened with that.

Don't count your chicks before they hatch!!

Never say never in the tropics!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

IMHO, this is very likely a protected pouch.

Dry air is beginning to intrude from the NW of the CoC.
Convection is firing and washing out along a dryline relatively far and west from the circulation.
New convection is refiring very close to the CoC.
Visible shows a well defined closed circulation.

GFS is forecasting a small ULL ahead of the track in about 2 days.
This will create sinking air ahead of 99L and inhibit convection.
Watching this closely on how well that plays out.
If this is a protected pouch, it could have a minimal effect.

The circulation seems elongated, and convection is still shallow. It’ll definitely need a significant burst to ever get classified as a TC.

The elongation appears to be due to it not being completely broken away from the ITCZ.
Sorry for disagreeing with Aric.

https://i.imgur.com/32RjKCx.png

no need to apologize. lol

it is one of the more difficult things to determine without ASCAT.

besides that images is just the GFS surface analysis. it does fairly well but not on smal scales like this.

from visible any attachment to the circ is far to the SW of the center.

[SoupBone]

This wave will be well done toast. Way too much mid level dry air AND SAL. It's gonna vaporize like a drop of water on a hot frying pan. Basically, too much July out there.

What has me concerned, long term though, is that this setup of sending systems into the GoM like we're seeing right now with the two waves, then this one priming things up. I have a really uneasy feeling about the trajectory of these systems so far this season.

[toad strangler]

This wave will be well done toast. Way too much mid level dry air AND SAL. It's gonna vaporize like a drop of water on a hot frying pan. Basically, too much July out there.

What has me concerned, long term though, is that this setup of sending systems into the GoM like we're seeing right now with the two waves, then this one priming things up. I have a really uneasy feeling about the trajectory of these systems so far this season.

Too much complex variability at 500mb for me to have real worry about these kinds of tracks closer to peak season.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1285224992867790851

[TheStormExpert]

This got the dreaded 99L tag pre-Hermine in 2016 got!

I’m not expecting much if any development from this. Will likely have to wait until August to see a MDR storm or hurricane.

[GCANE]

Convective-debris flow far SW of the CoC seems to indicate the possible development of a small anti-cyclone that 99L will track into.
This would be contrary to GFS's forecast of a ULL in approximately 48 hrs.
Need to watch this closely, particularly since it is directly south of a major Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break.
Could significantly effect forecast intensity.