ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 90, 2020072012, , BEST, 0, 282N, 935W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, al722020 to al902020,

[Horn1991]

TexWx checking in. Had to start a new user name.

Interesting feature we have here.

[davidiowx]

Well that escalated quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

Now lets see if it can fight off the seabreeeze and since it is plenty offshore it has time.

NHC is probably like.. Not another one of these.. lol

[SoupBone]

Well that escalated quickly.

Eh an invest is just a designation, I don't know that it means anything has really changed. It should bring some good rain to SE TX.

[SoupBone]

Now lets see if it can fight off the seabreeeze and since it is plenty offshore it has time.

NHC is probably like.. Not another one of these.. lol

Was waiting to see what you would say.

[jaguars_22]

This will likely move ashore upper Texas coast so any of those in Victoria shouldn’t get much rain? Or is it going to move due west if it develops

[MississippiWx]

Invest designations are subjective, but I would have made it one yesterday.

[wxman57]

Obs indicate more of a trof axis now than a closed low, as models had predicted.

[SoupBone]

Obs indicate more of a trof axis now than a closed low, as models had predicted.

http://wxman57.com/images/90L.JPG

So similar weather to a tropical system but no closed circulation low?

[wxman57]

Obs indicate more of a trof axis now than a closed low, as models had predicted.

http://wxman57.com/images/90L.JPG

So similar weather to a tropical system but no closed circulation low?

No well-defined closed circulation. Only a rainfall "threat" to an area that needs rain.

[drezee]

Obs indicate more of a trof axis now than a closed low, as models had predicted.

http://wxman57.com/images/90L.JPG

Any consolidation will be convectively driven, if any. It has a chance, but a convective tower is needed

[NDG]

Looks like an outflow from the the convection to the east of the weak low pressure center is disrupting its circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like an outflow from the the convection to the east of the weak low pressure center is disrupting its circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/BJ8Ppsb.gif

yeppers. have to see if that turns into an area of convergence.

west winds are still present per obs..

just have to wait and see. definitely not making any progress to the coast yet.

[jaguars_22]

Aric Dunn is this moving westward?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric Dunn is this moving westward?

overall... very slowly. but the circ is doing a cyclonic loop.

[cycloneye]

Surface observations indicate that a weak low pressure area is
located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized during the past several hours. However, the system is
expected to move inland over Texas tonight or Tuesday before
significant additional development can occur. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or
two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Aric Dunn]

I am seeing some areas of sea breezes kicking along the south coast of Texas. if it becomes to much the westerly flow can be disrupted and it will open back up.

almost all systems pulse down this time of day.. but it can of course be bad timing if an llc is just getting going.

[wxman57]

Obs now show a broad, weak low moving westward toward the TX coast. That's what the high-res models were indicating. Still waiting for some rain in SW Houston.

[SoupBone]

Obs now show a broad, weak low moving westward toward the TX coast. That's what the high-res models were indicating. Still waiting for some rain in SW Houston.

http://wxman57.com/images/90Lb.JPG

Yeah it's overcast but no rain yet.