Tropical Storm Henri!
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AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
000
WTNT32 KNHC 050841
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES
WEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA.
HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY.
BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH.
THIS MAKES HENRI A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST. BUT
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AND UP TO 5 TO 8 INCHES MAY
ACCUMULATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH RIVER
STAGES...THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOS LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OR NORTH FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...27.7 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
WTNT32 KNHC 050841
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HENRI ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES
WEST OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA.
HENRI IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS
EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY.
BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH.
THIS MAKES HENRI A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST. BUT
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND AND UP TO 5 TO 8 INCHES MAY
ACCUMULATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. DUE TO SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH RIVER
STAGES...THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL.
THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOS LATER TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL OR NORTH FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...27.7 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22980
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Name Only
Henri in name only. A purely political upgrade on this one. "It's making landfall so let's upgrade it." Satellite indicates that convective complex east of the center is now weakening. Sure the pressure is low, but the pressures throughout the eastern Gulf are low because a cold front is approaching. One single 43kt flight level wind in a squall doesn't really make a TS.
This is far more ridiculous than last week's Grace, which had numerous buoy reports of 35kt winds and only lacked an LLC.
Oh well, at least we're rid of the name.
Take a look at what's heading fro FL. The coast may see 20-35 mph winds in that one squall. 15-20 mph inland. Just a lot of rain.
<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/henri.gif">
This is far more ridiculous than last week's Grace, which had numerous buoy reports of 35kt winds and only lacked an LLC.
Oh well, at least we're rid of the name.
Take a look at what's heading fro FL. The coast may see 20-35 mph winds in that one squall. 15-20 mph inland. Just a lot of rain.
<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/henri.gif">
0 likes
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wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22980
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Interesting
Found an interesting NHC web page with details about how winds are estimated using dropwindsondes. Based on the data on the NHC page, TD 12 should still be TD 12 with 30kt surface winds (43 x .7 = 30.1kts).
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutwindprofile.shtml
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ColdFront77
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