2015-2019 Hurricane Seasons in Google Earth

[cainjamin]

A little quarantine project for me has been inputting the last 6 hurricane seasons into Google Earth with Wikipedia style tracks. I've now completed the previous 5 years (and will complete 2020 when all the TCRs come out) and I thought there might be some interest for them here. Here's what it looks like in-app:

All storm tracks:


Landfalling storm tracks:


Landfall locations & intensities:


Here are the download links for all 5 seasons: 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 & 2019. They're not perfect, but let me know if you find any big mistakes.

[Shell Mound]

One thing those maps make clear is the fact that 2015–19, as bad as it was, could have easily been far worse for the mainland U.S., especially in light of 2020. Matthew and Irma make this abundantly clear, and even Joaquin and Maria to lesser degrees. (Joaquin and Maria could have come much closer to the mainland U.S. than they actually did, and delivered at least somewhat more measurable impacts.) As of 21:00 UTC on 5 October 2016, the NHC showed Matthew making landfall over Cocoa Beach as a powerful hurricane, well within the three-day cone. As late as 15:00 UTC on 7 September 2017—just less than three days before landfall actually took place, on the Keys—the NHC’s official track for Irma showed the storm remaining well north of Cuba before turning NNW into the Miami metropolitan area as a high-end Category 4 or stronger. People also tend to forget that the NHC’s 15:00 UTC advisory package on 30 August 2019 showed Dorian making landfall three days later on Jupiter Inlet as a strengthening Category-4 hurricane. In other words, on three occasions since 2016 the eastern coast of peninsular Florida was within three days of a Category-4+ landfall. All three cases involved trajectories that could have devastated the region from Miami to Orlando, the Space Coast, and Jacksonville, given that Matthew, Irma, and Dorian were all expected to be turning NNW during or just after landfall. So all three storms could have been near-worst-case scenarios for much of the Florida peninsula and even parts of the Southeastern U.S., especially coastal Georgia and South Carolina. Probably Irma had the highest “ceiling” of the three in terms of apocalyptic devastation, however, given that it would have impacted the Miami area first, unlike Matthew and Dorian. Numerous model runs were showing a solid Cat-5 impact on Miami at various points in time, followed by a track over Lake Okeechobee, Orlando, and the western suburbs of Jacksonville. The biggest surprise is that Panama City instead of Miami became the next Homestead. Prior to Michael, had someone predicted that Florida’s first Category-5 hit since Andrew would occur in the Panhandle, people would have probably looked askance at him. Southeast Florida is always a top seasonal pick for the next “big one,” yet the “big one,” if does manage to hit Florida, ends up hitting a surprising spot.