SPAC: IMOGEN - Remnants

[Nancy Smar]

97P.INVEST

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 5
Issued at 10:44 am EST on Sunday 3 January 2021

Headline:
A tropical low located just to the northwest of Monington Island is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone tonight.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Mornington Island to Pormpuraaw.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island.

Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am AEST [9:30 am ACST]:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 20 kilometres of 16.3 degrees South 139.2 degrees East, estimated to be 40 kilometres north of Mornington Island and 220 kilometres northwest of Karumba.

Movement: southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low or cyclone is expected to move towards the east southeast and cross the southeast Gulf coast tonight or early Monday morning. The low remains in a favourable environment to develop into a tropical cyclone tonight, just before landfall.

Hazards:
GALES extending out to about 100 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone may develop about coastal and island communities between Mornington Island and Pormpuraaw tonight.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES and large waves are expected about the southeastern Gulf and western Cape York Peninsula as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may produce flooding along the foreshore.

HEAVY RAINFALL that is likely to lead to flash flooding, flooding of low lying areas and riverine flooding will develop about the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland later today. Heavy rainfall will spread to remaining areas of southern Cape York Peninsula and Gulf Country on Monday as the low or tropical cyclone moves onto the coast and further inland.

A separate severe weather warning has been issued for further heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts elsewhere.

Recommended Action:
People between Mornington Island and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5 pm.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Sunday 03 January [4:30 pm ACST Sunday 03 January].

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

[aspen]

This already has an eye-like feature and good banding. It might already be a TC, and a moderately significant one at that.

[Nancy Smar]

FKAU05 ADRM 030614
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20210103/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: IMOGEN
ADVISORY NR: 2021/1
OBS PSN: 03/0600Z S1636 E13936
CB: WI 60NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: SE 06KT
C: 991HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 03/1200 S1654 E14018
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 03/1800 S1712 E14112
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 04/0000 S1718 E14136
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 04/0600 S1724 E14200
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 30KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20210103/1300Z

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 7:50 am EST on Monday 4 January 2021

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Imogen is moving further inland over the eastern Gulf Country. A transition to a tropical low is expected soon, but heavy rainfall and localised damaging winds remain possible.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Inland eastern Gulf Country including Croydon.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Coastal areas between Karumba and Gilbert River Mouth, and adjacent inland including Normanton.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Imogen at 7:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 65 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 95 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 142.3 degrees East, estimated to be 55 kilometres north of Croydon and 130 kilometres east of Normanton.

Movement: east southeast at 19 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Imogen crossed the Gulf of Carpentaria coast just to the north of Karumba at about 9pm last evening. Imogen is expected to continue moving east-southeastwards in the short term, taking it further inland today. The system has recently maintained its strength over land, but later this morning is expected to gradually transition to a tropical low. Longer term, the system is expected to track more slowly to the southeast towards the North Tropical and Herbert-Lower Burdekin coasts as a deep tropical low.

Hazards:
GALES with wind gusts to 90 km/h are likely to continue to extend out to about 80 kilometres from the centre of the cyclone for the next hour or two. Winds should generally ease below gale force during Monday morning as Imogen transitions to a tropical low, but squally thunderstorms with more isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible for the remainder of Monday.

HEAVY RAINFALL that is likely to lead to flash flooding, flooding of low lying areas and riverine flooding is being observed about the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland, and is likely to continue near the cyclone through Monday. Heavy rainfall will spread to inland areas of southern Cape York Peninsula on Monday as the cyclone moves further inland. A separate severe weather warning is current for damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall further east across the southern Peninsula and North Tropical Coast.

Recommended Action:
People in inland areas of the eastern Gulf Country including Croydon should remain indoors until the cyclone has passed and listen to the next advice at 11am.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage)

[cycloneye]

Is now downgraded to a Tropical Low and is the last warning.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 10:45 am EST on Monday 4 January 2021

Headline:
Tropical cyclone Imogen has weakened to a tropical low but remains a dangerous system with widespread flooding rainfall expected over northern Queensland.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
None.

Cancelled Zone
Inland eastern Gulf Country including Croydon.

Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Imogen at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 142.4 degrees East, estimated to be 60 kilometres north northeast of Croydon and 140 kilometres east of Normanton.

Movement: east southeast at 14 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Imogen has now weakened into a tropical low. The low is expected to continue moving east-southeastwards in the short term, taking it further inland today. Longer term, the system is expected to track more slowly to the southeast towards the North Tropical and Herbert-Lower Burdekin coasts.

Hazards:
GALES with wind gusts to 90 km/h have eased about the tropical low. However, DAMAGING and LOCALLY DESTRUCTIVE winds are still possible with thunderstorms in the area - refer to the Severe Weather Warning.

HEAVY RAINFALL that is likely to lead to flash flooding, flooding of low lying areas and riverine flooding is expected to continue near and to the east of the tropical low for the next few days. Refer to the Severe Weather Warning for more details.

Recommended Action:
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
No further advices will be issued for this system.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 210. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.