WPAC: INVEST 90W

[Nancy Smar]

90W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.6N.127.5E

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 181230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181230Z-190600ZJAN2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180752ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2N
126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 180723Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN 180116Z
ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT
WEAKER 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (>25KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 90W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF THE
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Nancy Smar]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 120E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

TD since 19/18Z

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 15N 122E NW SLOWLY.