Gulf of Mexico unsettled (Invest 91L is up)

[jaguars_22]

This area has some minor model support to get a spin by time it comes inland near texas. Any other opinions?

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

[tolakram]

CMC has the most development, GFS a shadow, Euro not much.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

UKMET too:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.0N 94.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.05.2021 25.0N 94.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.05.2021 27.0N 96.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2021 28.9N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

[Evil Jeremy]

This just caught my eye while looking at SE USA satellite loops (wanted to "look" at the high pressure that's been giving us some fun gusts here in SFL yesterday and today). Season's inching closer...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

UKMET too:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.0N 94.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.05.2021 25.0N 94.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.05.2021 27.0N 96.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2021 28.9N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Add the Euro to that:

[HurricaneEnzo]

Already looks like it has some mid-level rotation on the Southern end of this area. Something to watch, you never know.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[aspen]

UKMET too:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.0N 94.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.05.2021 25.0N 94.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.05.2021 27.0N 96.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2021 28.9N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Add the Euro to that:
https://i.ibb.co/jZxcw57/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-2.png

Still nothing from the GFS or ICON so far.

Has there ever been a season with two TCs simultaneously active before June 1st?

[Monsoonjr99]

Well this is unexpected. The GFS was previously showing a Gulf system a week ago but since dropped it and no other models supported anything here for several days. I didn't think I'd need to watch anything besides 90L this week.

Though it is May, there is still no NHC AOI, and a few models only just noticed this, I cannot forget Bertha last year. This bears watching.

[Ryxn]

UKMET too:

Add the Euro to that:
https://i.ibb.co/jZxcw57/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-2.png

Still nothing from the GFS or ICON so far.

Has there ever been a season with two TCs simultaneously active before June 1st?

Yes there has and it happened from May 17 to 18, 1887. Quote:

"When this storm (Tropical Storm Two) and the first storm were active simultaneously from May 17 to May 18, it became the earliest for two storms to be active at one time."

If we get a brief gulf storm as Ana is active, it will be only the second time in history two cyclones were simultaneously active before June 1st.

[Cpv17]

I’m surprised the NHC didn’t even give it a mention in their latest 2.

[Cpv17]

UKMET too:

Add the Euro to that:
https://i.ibb.co/jZxcw57/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-2.png

Still nothing from the GFS or ICON so far.

Has there ever been a season with two TCs simultaneously active before June 1st?

Remember last year the GFS could never detect genesis. Could be dealing with the same thing this year.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Add the Euro to that:
https://i.ibb.co/jZxcw57/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-2.png

Still nothing from the GFS or ICON so far.

Has there ever been a season with two TCs simultaneously active before June 1st?

Remember last year the GFS could never detect genesis. Could be dealing with the same thing this year.

Oddly enough, I don't think it's an issue of the GFS detecting genesis - more of its underlying issue of spotting something, then dropping it before eventually picking it back up after other models hop on board. Of course, it was trying to send it into Louisiana over a week ago, but given that the ridge entrenched itself further west compared to modeling, that makes sense.

[Shell Mound]

UKMET too:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 25.0N 94.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.05.2021 25.0N 94.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.05.2021 27.0N 96.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2021 28.9N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.05.2021 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Add the Euro to that:
https://i.ibb.co/jZxcw57/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-2.png

The EC shows a closed low-level center with 850-mb winds of ~44 kt, so it is clearly indicating a low-end TS hitting S TX within thirty-six hours. This could become Arlene before 90L does, given current organisational and modelled trends. A rather compact area of low-level vorticity is already present, and vertical wind shear is anomalously low for this time of year, so I think it is quite likely to become a named system within the next twelve to twenty-four hours. Already hints of anticyclonic flow are evident on visible imagery. It arguably looks better now than many other systems that were classified by this stage, so this should be 91L very shortly at the very least. If this manages to become a TS prior to landfall, it will be the earliest TS to strike the state of TX in the calendar-year on record. The EC shows a track similar to that of Hurricane #3 (1936).

[aspen]

Still nothing from the GFS or ICON so far.

Has there ever been a season with two TCs simultaneously active before June 1st?

Remember last year the GFS could never detect genesis. Could be dealing with the same thing this year.

Oddly enough, I don't think it's an issue of the GFS detecting genesis - more of its underlying issue of spotting something, then dropping it before eventually picking it back up after other models hop on board. Of course, it was trying to send it into Louisiana over a week ago, but given that the ridge entrenched itself further west compared to modeling, that makes sense.

The GFS had issues detecting anything in advance early in the season, while the CMC and the mesoscale models were a lot better. In the late season, it was the GFS sniffing out all the WCar storms two weeks before they formed, only to drop them in the medium range before picking them up again in the short range. Zeta is a good example.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Still nothing from the GFS or ICON so far.

Has there ever been a season with two TCs simultaneously active before June 1st?

Remember last year the GFS could never detect genesis. Could be dealing with the same thing this year.

Oddly enough, I don't think it's an issue of the GFS detecting genesis - more of its underlying issue of spotting something, then dropping it before eventually picking it back up after other models hop on board. Of course, it was trying to send it into Louisiana over a week ago, but given that the ridge entrenched itself further west compared to modeling, that makes sense.

Yeah I was gonna say this. It seemed like last year that was the case at least. Several times they sniffed out development long range only to drop it mid-range and bring in back in the shorter range. Not saying that is what we have here but seemed to be a common theme last season.

[DestinHurricane]

It's vorticity signature has improved a lot since this morning. If it can get a little more convection I think a 40-50 knot tropical storm is a decent probability. It'll be battling dry air and some shear, so I certainly don't expect anything more than 50 knot. I want to see the ECENS though before I am fully convinced, and I think that is what NHC was waiting on as well.

[DestinHurricane]

Add the Euro to that:
https://i.ibb.co/jZxcw57/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-2.png

Still nothing from the GFS or ICON so far.

Has there ever been a season with two TCs simultaneously active before June 1st?

Remember last year the GFS could never detect genesis. Could be dealing with the same thing this year.

Now we see that the Euro is detecting genesis fine, so if is was/is a problem, it isn't lack of data being put into the models.

[Ivanhater]

We all remember the GFS showing future Hanna as nothing more than a cluster of rain showers even the day before. It also refused to strengthen Laura in the Gulf and we all know how that ended.

It will be interesting to see if we have the same issue this year.

[captainbarbossa19]

We all remember the GFS showing future Hanna as nothing more than a cluster of rain showers even the day before. It also refused to strengthen Laura in the Gulf and we all know how that ended.

It will be interesting to see if we have the same issue this year.

Last year, it did seem to have a bias against storm formation/intensification in the western Gulf.