WPAC: INVEST 98W

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: INVEST 98W

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 23, 2021 3:08 pm

Is this at least the one CMC is developing?
98W.INVEST

98W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.6N.165E

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 23, 2021 3:22 pm

If it is, models don't really develop it until it passes the Marianas. Today's 12Z is much more pronounced than last one
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 23, 2021 3:27 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Is this at least the one CMC is developing?
98W.INVEST

98W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.6N.165E

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Yb9zNBc.jpg[url]

Yes it is. GFS, CMC, and Euro develop it but with GFS being the strongest of the bunch. Euro acknowledges it at least.

Image

Invest 99W should be up soon as well since the GFS and CMC develop both systems.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 23, 2021 3:50 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Is this at least the one CMC is developing?
98W.INVEST

98W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.6N.165E

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Yb9zNBc.jpg[url]


Invest 99W should be up soon as well since the GFS and CMC develop both systems.

I'm still skeptical about a second forming, I'm not saying this will turn out to be another Surigae but there were GFS runs pre-Surigae where it developed a second system. But CMC develops it too so it raises an eyebrow.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 23, 2021 5:22 pm

Hayabusa wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Is this at least the one CMC is developing?
98W.INVEST

98W.INVEST.15kts.1000mb.6N.165E

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Yb9zNBc.jpg[url]


Invest 99W should be up soon as well since the GFS and CMC develop both systems.

I'm still skeptical about a second forming, I'm not saying this will turn out to be another Surigae but there were GFS runs pre-Surigae where it developed a second system. But CMC develops it too so it raises an eyebrow.

Yeah. If there is going to be multiple systems, it's also possible for this system to bust in favor of the other systems. Won't know until the disturbances become better defined and dominates.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#6 Postby Subtrop » Sun May 23, 2021 7:42 pm

98W INVEST 210523 1800 5.4N 155.1E WPAC 10 1014
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Sun May 23, 2021 8:16 pm

Subtrop wrote:
98W INVEST 210523 1800 5.4N 155.1E WPAC 10 1014

It got relocated 10 longitude west, which I kind of expected when looking at the vorticity graphics
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 24, 2021 6:41 am

Latest GFS has this becoming the dominant system and *eats* up the second system to it's east.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Mon May 24, 2021 7:18 am

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1396639734982606853


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