Old front in Gulf

[Stormcenter]

I know the models are not showing anything but
there is a lot thunderstorm activity in the Gulf. It is from
the front that just moved offshore.

[Nimbus]

Were you thinking of something developing off the East or West coast of Florida?
Edit to add: This is a somewhat rare cold front for August digging this far south, so even the mid gulf buoy might be worth monitoring.

[Category5Kaiju]

I was thinking this front would have spawned a TC easily, but then I keep reminding myself that this year has not really been acting like 2020 in that sense, when every front literally spawned like 2 TCs

[AlphaToOmega]

Conditions seem conducive enough for tropical development, and the system has ensemble support. SSTs are warm enough to support a tropical storm.

[Nimbus]

Lowest surface pressure I could find is near Pilots station south of NOLA.
Slow steady drop in pressure from 30.06 to 29.89 as the front reached the gulf.
No centered convective burst yet but chances are increasing.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=PSTL1

[AlphaToOmega]

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow-moving cold front stretches westward from the Florida
Big Bend to Corpus Christi, Texas. Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms are evident across the Gulf north of 25N.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas up to 6 ft are near
these thunderstorms.

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the Straits of
Florida across the central Gulf to central Mexico. Convergent SE
winds near the ridge axis are coupling with divergent winds aloft
to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the east-central
Gulf and Florida Peninsula. An upper-level low near the eastern
coast of Mexico at 28N98W is supporting isolated showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the western Gulf. The surface ridge
continues to support gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4
ft across the central and S Gulf.

For the forecast, a slow-moving cold front from the Florida Big
Bend to Corpus Christi, Texas will become stationary tonight over
the northern Gulf of Mexico. On the Fri, the front will weaken as
it lifts northward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico through Fri.
Moderate SW to W winds will prevail south of the front in the
northeastern Gulf through this evening. Moderate to fresh E winds
will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche
every night through Mon night in association with a diurnal
trough. Elsewhere south of the front, a surface ridge will
dominate the Gulf waters over the next several days producing
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds.

[tropicwatch]

There is some decent 925 and 850mb vorticity in the Gulf of Mexico south of Apalachicola.
925mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

850mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

[Nimbus]

There is some decent 925 and 850mb vorticity in the Gulf of Mexico south of Apalachicola.
925mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor5&zoom=&time=

850mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

The upper level high centered mid gulf is providing shear, but convection is waxing mid gulf as well.