When will Henri form?

[AlphaToOmega]

-August 14-20
-August 21-31
-September 1-10
-After September 10
-The season will end with Grace
Now that Tropical Strom Grace formed, it seems appropriate to have a poll on when Henri might form.

[cycloneye]

Made the poll with 6 options that will close on August 20.

[aspen]

There are some signals on the models suggesting a storm could try to form in the next week, so I went with August 14-20th. It wouldn’t surprise me if development occurs just after that time frame, however.

[Category5Kaiju]

This one seems a bit trickier than predicting Grace, but if I had to pick, I’d be conservative and go with the August 21-31 period, albeit near the very beginning part of that period. I am relying on the big wave after Grace to become Henri, this is my reasoning.

[AlphaToOmega]

I think Henri will form in the subtropics north of the Bahamas.

[Stormybajan]

This is quite tricky, not seeing much in the models for the 14-20th time frame although who knows what can possibly come out of nowhere now. Ill be safe and choose the August 21-31st option

[chaser1]

I'm going with the "long-shot" bet that Henri will form 48-72 hr.'s from now (Aug 14-20th range). To the west of Gloria, there is what i'd call a "screaming eagle" tropical wave that appears to have a sheared low level spin around 22N & 69W. This is moving westward and soon under more favorable anticyclonic upper conditions. This could be a small and quick spin-up on approach to around Andros Island north of E. Cuba in a few days.

I have a back-up plan however lol. If my #1 Henri candidate fails to form into a minimal T.S., then my "Plan B" could be a fast spin up from a former frontal low about 15 degrees north and near Bermuda right now. It is showing convection and could be a quasi-warm core candidate. A bit more desperate and "Plan C" possible near-term Henri candidate could be that small transient (mid level?) convective feature now in the Eastern Caribbean south of D.R.

Finally if none of these options pan out there's always the crazy possibility of Fred reforming in the East Gulf while a new "Spawn of Fred" develops south of Cuba out of the remnant MLC energy showing the greatest convection.

[Landy]

There are some signals on the models suggesting a storm could try to form in the next week, so I went with August 14-20th. It wouldn’t surprise me if development occurs just after that time frame, however.

Looks to be increasingly likely that said signals will check out with 96L now having a high chance of TC formation.

[Ptarmigan]

Henri looks to be forming this week from Invest 96L.
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=122099