WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

94W.INVEST

94W.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.8.4N.152E

[ElectricStorm]

The GFS makes this a strong typhoon approaching Taiwan. Looks like we might get some more action over here...finally

[Hayabusa]

Euro doesn't intensify much only tries to when it's in the Philippine Sea, interestingly Euro was the first one to show possible development than the GFS.

[Hayabusa]

I'm not really sure if it's the same invest or a would be separate one in this ensemble.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 030100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030100Z-030600ZSEP2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZSEP2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N
144.8E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN, AFB. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION CYCLING OVER A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST TRACK POSITION IS HIGH WITH
SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A 022203Z METOP-A BULLSEYE PASS WHICH SHOWED
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 94W
POSITIONED NEAR THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF A COL REGION PROVIDING GOOD
DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, AND
VERY WARM (30 TO 31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OUTLIER,
FORECASTING MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS IN THE VICINITY OR JUST
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 051400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/051400Z-060600ZSEP2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY
304 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. INVEST 95W IS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW
(<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 94W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY,
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH INVEST 95W. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 48 TO WARNING STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro now showing significant strengthening.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

WWJP25 RJTD 051800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 139E WNW SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

GFS is no longer enthused with this system based on latest run.

[Yellow Evan]

This is also classifiable.

[Hayabusa]

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro continues to make this a STY.

[Hayabusa]

WTPQ51 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 14.6N 138.0E POOR
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 15.9N 136.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 081200UTC 16.6N 133.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 091200UTC 18.0N 128.2E 170NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 101200UTC 20.1N 124.5E 240NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
120HF 111200UTC 21.3N 122.4E 330NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =

[Hayabusa]

Euro 06Z still believes in significant strengthening